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The PGA Championship odds and win probability list World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to win the year's second golf major. Scheffler has a 16% win probability, equating to American odds of +525 to repeat as the champion of the Wanamaker Trophy. Scheffler didn't play this past week's Truist Championship. He was the runner-up in each of his past three events, including the 2026 Masters, won by Rory McIlroy.
The PGA Championship is locked at a field of 156, with Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju claiming the final two spots on Sunday. Snedeker won the Myrtle Beach Classic, while Yellamaraju got in as the first alternate with Truist Championship winner Kristoffer Reitan already being in the field.
Here are the latest PGA Championship odds and win probabilities for the outright winner market at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — as well as important field notes.
📊 Live PGA Championship odds 2026
Golfer
Win probability
Movement (since Friday)
Scottie Scheffler
+525
16%
⬇️
Rory McIlroy
+1000
8.4%
⬇️
Cameron Young
+1500
6.2%
⬇️
Jon Rahm
+1700
5.3%
⬇️
Xander Schauffele
+1800
5.1%
⬆️
Bryson DeChambeau
+2000
4.6%
⬆️
Ludvig Aberg
+2500
3.8%
⬇️
Matt Fitzpatrick
+2800
3.4%
⬇️
Tommy Fleetwood
+2800
3.4%
⬇️
Justin Rose
+4900
2%
⬇️
PGA Championship odds as of 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 10.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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⭐ PGA Championship favorite
Scottie Scheffler's PGA Championship odds: 16%, +525
Scottie Scheffler skipped the Truist Championship Signature Event at Quail Hollow Club — the site of his PGA Championship victory last year. The week off didn't impact his odds to successfully defend the Wanamaker Trophy, helped by a lackluster Sunday leaderboard topped by Kristoffer Reitan, Rickie Fowler, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Alex Fitzpatrick.
Scheffler's PGA Championship odds would've lengthened if one of the other favorites — Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, or Rory McIlroy — had won this week.
Scheffler leads all golfers with 2.97 true strokes gained per round this year, according to Data Golf. He also tops the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranks second in SG: around-the-green.
📈 Latest PGA Championship odds movement
All but two of the PGA Championship outright favorites saw their odds to win lengthen following the conclusion of the Truist Championship (and Myrtle Beach Classic). A largely unimpressive performance by the two PGA Championship contenders in their final tune-up helped to level the playing field at Kalshi.
We're seeing a more balanced oddsboard than we have in most recent majors and Signature Events. Only Scottie Scheffler has a double-digit win probability (16%). Rory McIlroy's chances to win dropped from a high of 11% on Friday following a disappointing T19 finish at Quail Hollow.
Kristoffer Reitan's PGA Championship odds sit at +5500 (1.8% win probability). Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju both have less than a 1% chance of winning the major.
Only Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau saw their PGA Championship win probability rise this weekend.
⚖️ How I'm trading the PGA Championship
Aronimink Golf Club, in Newtown Square, Pa., hasn't hosted the PGA Championship since 1962. That lack of competitive course history for the entire 2026 PGA Championship field helps to lengthen the list of names to consider for the outright win this week.
I consider the 2026 PGA Championship to be one of the more wide-open major championships in golf in recent years.
A par-70 course measuring nearly 7,400 yards, it will favor bombers. A sharp approach game is key at any "new" venue in golf. And a hot week with the putter can often fuel surprise runs to the top of the leaderboard in these situations.
I'll be sprinkling more on the PGA Championship long shots this week. This is the major already most likely to produce long-shot winners, and hosting an event for the first time in a generation is the great equalizer.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Focus on driving distance, strokes gained: approach, and recent form with the putter in your PGA Championship picks to win this week.
🆚 2026 PGA Championship field
The 2026 PGA Championship field was announced on Tuesday. The field closed at 156 golfers with Brandt Snedeker earning his way as champion of the Myrtle Beach Classic, while Canadian Sudarshan Yellamaraju claimed the final spot as the first alternate. Kristoffer Reitan — the winner of the Truist Championship — was already entered.
Neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson is in the field.
There'll be no further field changes, barring a withdrawal.
Ludvig Aberg
Angel Ayora
Derek Berg
Daniel Berger
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Akshay Bhatia
Francisco Bide
Chandler Blanchet
Michael Block
Keegan Bradley
Michael Brennan
Jacob Bridgeman
Daniel Brown
Sam Burns
Brian Campbell
Patrick Cantlay
Ricky Castillo
Bud Cauley
Stewart Cink
Wyndham Clark
Tyler Collet
Corey Conners
Pierceson Coody
Jason Day
Bryson DeChambeau
Thomas Detry
Luke Donald
Jesse Droemer
Jason Dufner
Nico Echavarria
Harris English
Bryce Fisher
Steven Fisk
Alex Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick
Tommy Fleetwood
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Chris Gabriele
Mark Geddes
Ryan Gerard
Lucas Glover
Chris Gotterup
Max Greyserman
Ben Griffin
Emiliano Grillo
Jordan Gumberg
Harry Hall
Brian Harman
Padraig Harrington
Tyrrell Hatton
Zach Haynes
Russell Henley
Kazuki Higa
Garrick Higgo
Joe Highsmith
Daniel Hillier
Ryo Hisatsune
Rico Hoey
Ian Holt
Max Homa
Billy Horschel
Viktor Hovland
Austin Hurt
Nicolai Hojgaard
Rasmus Hojgaard
Sungjae Im
Stephan Jaeger
Casey Jarvis
Dustin Johnson
Jared Jones
Kota Kaneko
Michael Kartrude
Martin Kaymer
John Keefer
Ben Kern
Michael Kim
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Kurt Kitayama
Jake Knapp
Brooks Koepka
Min Woo Lee
Ryan Lenahan
Haotong Li
Mikael Lindberg
David Lipsky
Shane Lowry
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Denny McCarthy
Matt McCarty
Paul McClure
Max McGreevy
Rory McIlroy
Tom McKibbin
Maverick McNealy
Shaun Micheel
Keith Mitchell
Collin Morikawa
William Mouw
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
Joaquin Niemann
Alex Noren
Andrew Novak
John Parry
Taylor Pendrith
Marco Penge
Ben Polland
J.T. Poston
Aldrich Potgieter
David Puig
Andrew Putnam
Jon Rahm
Aaron Rai
Patrick Reed
Kristoffer Reitan
Davis Riley
Patrick Rodgers
Justin Rose
Adrien Saddier
Garrett Sapp
Jayden Schaper
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Adam Schenk
Matti Schmid
Adam Scott
Braden Shattuck
Alex Smalley
Cameron Smith
Jordan Smith
Austin Smotherman
Elvis Smylie
Travis Smyth
Brandt Snedeker
J.J. Spaun
Jordan Spieth
Sam Stevens
Sepp Straka
Andy Sullivan
Nick Taylor
Sahith Theegala
Justin Thomas
Michael Thorbjornsen
Sami Valimaki
Jhonattan Vegas
Ryan Vermeer
Jimmy Walker
Matt Wallace
Bernd Wiesberger
Timothy Wiseman
Gary Woodland
Y.E. Yang
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Cameron Young
📜 PGA Championship past winner odds
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). With that said, we've also seen massive longshots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).
Year
Golfer
Odds
2025
Scottie Scheffler
+650
2024
Xander Schauffele
+1400
2023
Brooks Koepka
+2000
2022
Justin Thomas
+1600
2021
Phil Mickelson
+20000
2020
Collin Morikawa
+3000
2019
Brooks Koepka
+1000
2018
Brooks Koepka
+1800
2017
Justin Thomas
+3500
2016
Jimmy Walker
+12500
2015
Jason Day
+1200
Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
❓ PGA Championship odds FAQs
Who has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship, with a 16% win probability from Kalshi.
How often are 2026 PGA Championship odds updated?
Books can adjust PGA Championship futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy betting action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.
Do favorites usually win the PGA Championship?
Not always. PGA Championship outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.
What’s the best way to trade on the PGA Championship besides outrights?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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