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The San Antonio Spurs wrapped up the Western Conference semifinals with a Game 6 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they’ll face a stiffer task when they face the undefeated Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.
My Spurs vs. Thunder predictions call for a low-scoring matchup between two defensively gifted teams looking for a key opening victory.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Game 1 from Paycom Center on Monday, May 18.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 1 prediction
Spurs vs Thunder best bet: Under 219 (-110)
The San Antonio Spurs boast the best defensive rating in the playoffs at a paltry 102.2, and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank sixth at 109.3.
The Spurs have surrendered just 102.5 points per game, while the Thunder have given up 104.6. Opponents are shooting just 40.5% against the Spurs, the lowest mark in the NBA.
Oklahoma City ranks second in opponent turnovers and third in steals, and they can disrupt San Antonio’s rhythm and potent scoring attack.
I’ll take the Under as these powerhouses trade blows and make life difficult for one another on offense.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
At home in the playoffs, the Thunder have allowed just 97 points per game and forced 20 turnovers, both Top 2 marks in the Association.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 1 same-game parlay
The Spurs have won and covered seven of their last 10 games, and all three of their losses came by five points or fewer. The Thunder are 5-3 ATS in the postseason, but they haven’t yet faced a team that is this familiar with them. The Spurs can keep things close on the road.
Victor Wembanyama has recorded 14+ rebounds in five of his last six games with at least 20 minutes played. Game 1 against the Thunder should be close, and Wemby’s rebounding will be needed against the Thunder’s two-headed monster of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
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Under 219
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Spurs +6.5
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Victor Wembanyama Over 13.5 rebounds
Spurs vs Thunder odds for Game 1
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Spread: Spurs +6.5 (-110) | Thunder -6.5 (-110)
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Moneyline: Spurs +210 | Thunder -260
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Over/Under: Over 219.5 (-110) | Under 219.5 (-110)
Spurs vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Spurs and Thunder hit the Game Total Under in all three head-to-head matchups at Paycom Center this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder Game 1
Location
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date
Monday, May 18, 2026
Tip-off
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Spurs vs Thunder latest injuries
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