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The Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox can swap stories of early-season gloom when they meet at Fenway Park tonight – but only one of these teams has been able to halt the spiral.
While Boston slips further from the .500 mark, Philadelphia is looking dangerous at last, and my Phillies vs. Red Sox predictions lean towards the visitors in this clash of marquee ballclubs.
Get the lowdown on this Tuesday, May 12, matchup with my free MLB picks.
Who will win Phillies vs Red Sox today: Phillies (-138)
What a difference a few weeks can make. Just when the obituaries were being written, the Philadelphia Phillies have climbed off the mat to win 10 of their last 13 contests, and I like Bryce Harper and Co. in this spot against the Boston Red Sox.
It also helps that the Phillies are handing the ball to Zack Wheeler tonight. He’s posted a 3.18 ERA so far this year, and Philadelphia has won all three of his starts.
After an eyebrow-raising sweep of the Tigers, the Red Sox came back to earth with a weekend series loss, and they’re just 7-12 at Fenway this season.
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COVERS INTEL:
Despite a late start to his season, Wheeler hasn't missed a beat, ranking in the 93rd percentile in xERA, xBA, and chase percentage.
Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+101)
With the Phillies heating up at the plate, I’m taking the Over tonight. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings, and they scored 22 runs in the weekend series against the Rockies. That included four homers from Kyle Schwarber, with Alec Bohm and Harper also joining the party.
Philadelphia has also finished with 9+ hits in five of its last six games, so watch for solid production here, with Boston expected to use an opener before turning things over to Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox offense is the biggest cause for pause here, but the possible return of Willson Contreras would give the lineup a boost.
Tom Oldfield's 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 2-6, -4.93 units
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Over/Under bets: 7-1, +5.31 units
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
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Moneyline: Phillies -133 | Red Sox +127
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Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Red Sox +1.5 (-127)
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Phillies vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 12 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Phillies vs Red Sox and game info
Location
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSP, NESN
Phillies starting pitcher
Zack Wheeler
(1-0, 3.12 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher
TBD
Phillies vs Red Sox latest injuries
Phillies vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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