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Round one of the Subway Series gets going this evening, with the New York Yankees facing the New York Mets at Citi Field.
We've backed the best pitcher in baseball on the mound without much of a second thought this season, and tonight's series opener will be no different.
Read all about it in my Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 15.
Who will win Yankees vs Mets tonight: Yankees moneyline (-150)
It's Cam Schlittler day for the New York Yankees, and I'm backing them confidently up to -170.
The New York Mets chase rate is nearly 32%, well above the league average. That should play directly into Schlittler's strengths as he enters this game with one of the highest chase-inducing rates in the league.
On the other side is Clay Holmes, facing the Yankees since the first time after leaving them this past offseason.
While it's not exactly quantifiable, the Yankees' familiarity with him matters. From a more tangible perspective, his groundball-dependent profile should struggle against a lineup that leads the MLB in barrel rate at 11.7%.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Despite the names in the lineup, the New York Mets rank just 19th in hard-hit rate.
Yankees vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7 (+100)
I am fairly close to market here, but lean towards under 7 with a projection of 6.8 runs.
A short-handed Mets lineup is going to really struggle to generate offense against Schlittler for most of the same reasons listed above. Schlittler doesn't give free passes, so you have to get contact against him.
I'm simply unsure how the Mets get much. While I think the top-heavy portion of the Yankees gets after Holmes (especially the second time around), his heavy groundball-inducing profile will have plenty of success against the bottom of the lineup.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 17-16, +0.16 units
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Over/Under bets: 22-12, +12.59 units
Yankees vs Mets odds
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Moneyline: Yankees -150 | Mets +135
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Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+118) | Mets +1.5 (-145)
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Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110)
Yankees vs Mets trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
Location
CitiField, Flushing, NY
Date
Friday, May 15, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
AppleTV
Yankees starting pitcher
Cam Schlittler
(5-1, 1.35 ERA)
Brewers starting pitcher
Clay Holmes
(4-3, 1.86 ERA)
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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