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After dropping the series opener at home, the San Antonio Spurs have completely flipped this matchup around with back-to-back wins to take a 2-1 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves heading into tonight’s pivotal Game 4.
Now, with a chance to grab a commanding 3-1 series advantage, San Antonio’s young core once again finds itself in the spotlight against an increasingly desperate Timberwolves squad.
Using the latest NBA player prop projections, we’ve identified the top computer picks and best value props for tonight’s matchup.
You can also check out our full Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions and today’s best NBA picks before tip-off.
Spurs vs Timberwolves computer picks for Game 4
Spurs
Timberwolves
Vassell o11.5 points
-127
Gobert o8.5 points
+100
Champagnie o8.5 points
-105
McDaniels u15.5 points
+106
Castle o4.5 rebounds
-125
Reid o10.5 points
-130
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Spurs Game 4 computer picks
Devin Vassell Over 11.5 points (-127)
Projection: 14.16 points
Devin Vassell continues to benefit from the defensive attention Victor Wembanyama commands in this series, creating plenty of clean catch-and-shoot looks and secondary scoring opportunities. He’s cleared this number comfortably in two straight games, and with Minnesota likely loading up on Wemby again tonight, the volume should remain steady.
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Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 points (-105)
Projection: 9.90 points
Julian Champagnie has quietly carved out a reliable offensive role for San Antonio, especially as a floor spacer in transition and corner sets. Minnesota’s defense has prioritized limiting paint touches, leaving complementary shooters with room to operate. At this number, Champagnie doesn’t need a massive night to cash.
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Stephon Castle Over 4.5 rebounds (-125)
Projection: 5.81 rebounds
Stephon Castle’s playoff role continues to expand, and his rebounding opportunities have followed. He’s playing heavy minutes, crashing the glass aggressively from the guard spot, and benefiting from Minnesota’s high-volume perimeter offense creating long rebound chances. The projection gives this prop a solid cushion.
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Timberwolves Game 4 computer picks
Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 points (+100)
Projection: 10.08 points
Rudy Gobert isn’t being asked to create offense, but the Spurs’ defensive attention on Anthony Edwards has opened up easy looks around the rim. Whether it’s dump-offs, lobs, or offensive rebounds, Gobert has consistently found scoring opportunities in the flow of the game. Plus money on a projection above 10 stands out immediately.
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Jaden McDaniels Under 15.5 points (+106)
Projection: 14.21 points
Jaden McDaniels remains an important piece defensively, but his offensive role has fluctuated throughout the series. With Edwards dominating usage and Minnesota leaning more heavily on Reid and Gobert for secondary scoring, McDaniels’ shot volume becomes difficult to trust at this number. The projection keeps him below the line for a reason.
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Naz Reid Over 10.5 points (-130)
Projection: 12.85 points
Naz Reid has consistently provided a spark offensively off the bench, and his versatility continues to create matchup issues for San Antonio’s second unit. Whether stretching the floor or attacking slower defenders inside, Reid has multiple paths to points, and the projection suggests this line still hasn’t fully adjusted to his current form.
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How to watch Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 4
Location
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Sunday, May 10, 2026
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Not intended for use in MA.
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