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In three short seasons, Victor Wembanyama has the San Antonio Spurs knocking on the door of the Western Conference finals and making a case for the best player in the NBA.
Wembanyama leads San Antonio against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, and our Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions combine player props to identify the best bet for the 7-foot Frenchman.
Here are my NBA picks and Wembanyama predictions for Game 6 on May 15.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Under 3.5 blocks (+105 at bet365)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are desperately trying to find a solution for the San Antonio Spurs’ defense.
Minnesota has the lowest effective field goal rate among all teams in Round 2 (47.1 EFG%) and has been plagued by poor starts, either mindlessly attacking the paint with Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint or settling for tough outside shots.
To combat those slow starts, T-Wolves head coach Chris Finch told reporters that his offense needs to be patient and take its time, moving the ball to improve its chances in Game 6.
To find that space, Minnesota could go with a smaller rotation to stretch the Spurs’ interior defense.
We saw a bit of this in Game 5. Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert received his fewest minutes of the postseason, as Finch utilized stretch forwards Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Jalen McDaniels at the No. 5 spot in order to draw Wembamyama away from the rim.
Wemby finished with only three blocks across 33 minutes in Game 5, and a more calculated attack from Minnesota – one that draws the 7-footer to the outside – would keep his shot swatting to a minimum.
Projections for Wembanyama range from 2.5 to 3.5 blocks in Game 6, with most models below 3 rejections.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
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Spurs moneyline
Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5 blocks
Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 threes
+330 at bet365
The Spurs just have too much depth for the T-Wolves to keep track of. On top of Wembanyama’s output, San Antonio is getting excellent scoring from all five starters and deep down the bench.
While Wemby won’t send four or more shots back, he’s not shy about letting it fly from deep. He’s knocked down two or more triples in three of his last four games with that lone down spot in Game 4, when he was ejected after 12 minutes.
Projections call for two triples tonight.
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