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The Detroit Tigers look for just their third win in 13 games when they host the Cleveland Guardians on Monday night.
Cleveland leads the AL Central thanks to picking up five wins in a six-game span. However, my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks are fading the visitors with Slade Cecconi taking the bump.
Who will win Guardians vs Tigers today: Tigers moneyline (-145)
Slade Cecconi is getting pummeled by opposing hitters. His 5.60 ERA and 5.05 FIP rank among the worst in the majors for pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.
Opponents have posted a .595 xSLG vs. Cecconi's fastball this year. He’s also performed far worse on the road, with a 6.60 ERA vs. a 3.60 home ERA.
Framber Valdez has put up quality numbers in seven of nine starts. He’s facing a Cleveland Guardians lineup ranked 21st in hard-hit rate and eighth in ground-ball rate vs. RHP over the past two weeks.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Slade Ceconi has posted an astronomical 19.96 ERA against hitters facing him a third time this season.
Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-128)
Once the starters give way to the bullpens, scoring will get much more difficult.
Over the past two weeks, the Detroit Tigers rank 29th in hard-hit rate, and dead last in HR/FB rate and wRC+. Cleveland’s pen ranks second in K-rate in that span.
Detroit’s pen has forced a league-high 55.2% GB rate during that timeframe. That’ll come in handy, seeing as the Guardians have posted the fourth-highest GB/FB rate while ranking 25th in BABIP.
Cleveland punished the poor-pitching Reds this weekend, but will regress to the mean today for another Under.
Jason Ence's 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 6-10, -4.67 units
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Over/Under bets: 11-5, +5.74 units
Guardians vs Tigers odds
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Moneyline: Guardians +138 | Tigers -144
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Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-156) | Tigers -1.5 (+150)
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have cashed the Under in seven of their last 10 games for +3.70 units and a 34% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info
Location
Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Date
Monday, May 18, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
FS1
Guardians starting pitcher
Slade Cecconi
(2-4, 5.60 ERA)
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez
(2-2, 4.32 ERA)
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Guardians vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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