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The St. Louis Cardinals look to clinch the series on Saturday as they take on the San Diego Padres.
Despite being underdogs in each of the first two matchups, St. Louis has come out on top both times, with both games also staying under the total.
My Cardinals vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks explain why I’m backing both those trends to continue on Saturday, May 9.
Who will win Cardinals vs Padres today: Cardinals moneyline (+125)
Dustin May has shown an impressive uptick in velocity this season compared to last, and has posted multiple quality starts over the past month.
The San Diego Padres rank dead last in BABIP the past two weeks. They also have the fifth-lowest xwOBA while hitting just .213 as a team during that span, leading to a wRC+ of 84.
The St. Louis Cardinals rank Top 10 in ISO and wRC+ the last two weeks, and should put up runs against a regressing Randy Vasquez.
His underlying metrics aren’t great, he’s struggling to avoid barrels, and he’s allowed 12 earned in his last 21 ⅔ IP.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
After relying heavily on a sinker/sweeper combo in 2025, May is showing a more versatile arsenal with four pitches featuring usage rates of 18% or more.
Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
The month of May has not been kind to the Padres offensively. They rank 26th in SLG, 29th in xwOBA, and are hitting just .194 at the plate.
Finding runs against May won’t be easy. He ranks in the 87th percentile in walk rate and 83rd percentile in barrel rate, and has allowed just eight earned in his last five starts.
The Cardinals have scored just eight runs in this series, while the Padres have managed just one in two games.
Vasquez will allow a few before he exits, but not enough to push this total north of the number.
Jason Ence's 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 4-6, -2.67 units
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Over/Under bets: 7-3, +3.91 units
Cardinals vs Padres odds
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Moneyline: Cardinals +127 | Padres -133
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Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-163) | Padres -1.5 (+156)
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Cardinals vs Padres trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.
How to watch Cardinals vs Padres and game info
Location
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date
Saturday, May 9, 2026
First pitch
7:15 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Cardinals starting pitcher
Dustin May
(3-3, 5.16 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher
Randy Vasquez
(3-1, 3.20 ERA)
Cardinals vs Padres latest injuries
Cardinals vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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