The 2026 season is already 25% completed, and the seeming haves and have-nots are starting to separate themselves in the standings. The obvious Elephant in the room is that the Cardinals were typecast and predestined to be a member of the “have-nots” group. Someone must’ve forgotten to send the Cardinals their script because, as of writing this piece on Saturday, May 9th, the Cardinals are a season high 8 games over .500 at 23-15, and hold the NL’s top Wild Card spot.
In what was expected to be the Cardinals’ “fall from grace” moment during a 17-straight gameday stretch that included 3 with Seattle, 4 with Pittsburgh, 3 with the LA Dodgers, now only 2 of 3 with Milwaukee, and 4 with San Diego, this was going to be the stretch that saw the energetic, scrappy, spunky Cardinals fall back in line with pre-season expectations.
Not only did that NOT happen, the Cardinals were close and competetive in each game of a 3 game sweep at home at the hands of the Mariners, they swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh, they took 2 of 3 from the back to back World Series Champion LA Dodgers, they split with the reigning NL Central Champions, and so far theyve earned at minnimum a split with the San Diego Padres. The obvious remains that it’s relatively early in the season, and 75% of the schedule remains.
However, the manner in which the Cardinals are winning games is not all that unsustainable, since April 15th (Jackie Robinson day), the Cardinals have the 7th best starting pitching ERA in MLB at 3.51. That’s 21 games of sample size. 4+ full turns through the rotation is seemingly difficult to fluke your way through. The Cardinals also have the 4th most DRS this season at +18 and are 6th in OAA defensively at a +7. The formula for sustainability is holding up the floor of this team with quality starting pitching and excellent defense behind them. The true question for the ceiling of this season lies with the offense.
The Cardinals have scored 182 runs so far this season, which is 10th best in baseball. They have the 11th-best K% in the league at 21.7%, 7th in team wRC+ at 105, and their xwOBA is 13th at .325. The ISO is the most surprising part of their offensive game thus far this season. Nobody expected this group to slug at the rate they have, and the 2026 Cardinals currently are 8th in isolated slugging at .157. This is the position group I’m most eager to see if it can sustain. Because if you’re able to combine a top 10 offense, a top 10 defense, and at worst a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff. You’re going to win a LOT of games.
But the kicker of it all is that this is supposed to be a “build” year for the Cardinals, and traditionally, teams in this spot don’t have the success the Cardinals are having, and they typically subtract from their roster, not add to it. Cardinals President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom has been very public with his comments that the long term is, has been, and will continue to be the focus of the St. Louis Cardinals. It would be highly unlikely that the Cardinals’ brain trust would invest significant young human capital in patching up the few holes that exist on this roster in the name of a true run at contention. However, if the team continues to win and force the issue with decision makers, there might be a larger conversation at the table about how to proceed forward, at least in 2026.
Going back to his introductory press conference at the end of the 2025 season. I am reminded that the Cardinals will, “when faced with a decision between short-term and long-term, choose the long-term every time. But, will concede nothing.” So, what could that look like when practically applying it to this version of the Cardinals, that’s 8 games over .500 and sitting solidly in a Wild Card spot? One would have to think ownership is very pleased with the performance on the field and optimistic that it will lead to more tickets sold. Some fans have already begun to explore the question of what lies ahead 2 months down the road when the Cardinals are faced with a potentially pivotal fork in the road decision point of buy, sell, or hold?
How would selling away valuable assets play with the general fan, who makes up the larger portion of Cardinal Nation, than the die-hard or intently informed fan who could rationalize the decision to continue building on the promising future that appears to have its foundation being laid in front of our very eyes? How would that decision play with the players in the clubhouse who have grinded and worked exhaustingly to get the team to this unexpected euphoric point in the season?
I look back at the 2022 Milwaukee Brewers, who traded away All-Star Closer Josh Hader in the midst of their competitive season, and it had negative drawbacks internally, even if it was the correct long-term sustainability play. Or the buy/sell combo that Jerry Dipoto pulled off in 2023, sending Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks and adding Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone, and Ryan Bliss, as well as a separate big league deal for RHP Eduard Bazardo, who has since become a big part of their bullpen and allowed an ascending Andres Munoz to step into the full-time closer’s role. Ironically enough that December, the Cardinals acquired Riley O’Brien from the Mariners for cash considerations. Maybe a move Jerry would want back, but maybe O’Brien doesn’t become what he has in St. Louis while still a Mariner. That’s all hypothetical, unable to answer stuff that my brain follows around the maze until inevitably smashing face-first into a dead-end wall.
That’s a lot of subtext for what I really wanted to chew on this week, which was, if the trade deadline were today, what players would the Cardinals still “soft sell” and who do I think they would hold onto in the name of giving this cinderella team a fighting chance to compete for a playoff spot?
Riley O’Brien – Sell
Riley O’Brien will perhaps be Chaim Bloom’s toughest decision at this year’s trade deadline. At 31 years old, O’Brien is on the wrong side of the aging curve, is performing at his absolute peak value, and has 4 years of club control remaining beyond this season. This isn’t something that just started in 2026. Going back to June 5th of 2025, Riley O’Brien has been one of the most dominant right-handed relievers in baseball.
O’Brien was recalled from Triple-A Memphis for good on this date, and this will be the sample size that most GM’s/front offices are looking at when trying to evaluate what to make of Riley O’Brien. As you can see, he has an FIP of 2.72, which is 12th best amongst his peers over the course of 63.1 IP. Simply put, you don’t fluke into the kind of sustained production O’Brien has had in the last calendar year, and if he continues at this rate, teams will PONY UP for him. Short of the Cardinals being first in the NL Central by a fairly wide margin, Bloom should not hesitate to cash in on O’Brien. If he were 27, this isn’t even a conversation. You keep him and let it ride. Being 31, this isn’t conducive to long-term viability, but if an elite contender wants a guy who could win it all for them in 2026…
There likely won’t be a better option available unless AJ Preller sells off Mason Miller (unlikely, but Preller is a WILD WILD man). I wouldnt expect a top 5 prospect in baseball in return for O’Brien, the way that the A’s were able to get for Miller. That dude is on another planet when it comes to relievers, and he’s still in his mid 20’s, so the calculus is different. The Cardinals wouldnt be off base to ask for a young high upside current major leaguer or a top 50 industry prospect close to debut to headline a deal, however. That could be one way to both maximize on the asset while also investing long-term into the current core.
Dustin May – Sell
May’s first 2 starts of the season were UGLY with a 15.95 ERA, xERA of 7.03, FIP of 6.40, and an xFIP of 5.38. The .556 BABIP was always unsustainable, but my goodness was it tough to watch. It was truly a “Red Nightmare” for Cardinals fans. You’re welcome, Dustin, for not using the G word.
In his last 5 starts, Dustin May has a 2.45 ERA and a 3.17 FIP. Those are much more indicative of the performances the Cardinals’ front office was hoping for when they signed May in December with the intention of reclaiming his career and flipping him to a contender at the deadline. This is another asset that I think the Cardinals should remain intent on cashing in. Approaching 3o with a long history of injury, this is a profile that could boom or bust, but with young starters like Hunter Dobbins, Quinn Matthews, and perhaps Brycen Mautz, the opportunity to allow those young guys to establish themselves at the big league level and accumulate more assets for the future would be the prudent long-term decision, regardless of performance.
Depending on the health or availability of the likes of Joe Ryan or Freddy Peralta. Dustin May might wind up being one of the higher upside pitchers available at this year’s deadline. Assuming the Giants don’t get back in the race, it will probably be between Robbie Ray and Dustin May as the top rental starter available at this year’s deadline, and that could net you a top 10 organizational prospect in return.
JoJo Romero – Hold
Speaking of rentals, JoJo Romero is in the midst of his final season of club control. Though I don’t think at this juncture he will be as highly sought after as a fair majority in our fanbase assumes.
Front offices typically will use 1-3 years of data to determine the value of players when engaged with other teams, to avoid everyone’s favorite, SSS. The 2.80 ERA shouldn’t be completely ignored, as JoJo has a clear track record of performance. Though fans should be cautious about putting stock into reliever ERA, most teams put very little value in that metric when it comes to evaluation. His FIP tells a more enlightening story at 3.94, and the K-BB% does as well. For a 2nd lefty in the pen on a contending team, contenders will live with and even be comfortable with this, but if the Cardinals want to market him as a high-leverage reliever, he has not been that statistically.
Therefore, I would expect that if Bloom were to trade JoJo today, the return would be underwhelming to most, excluding those who feel you have to get anything in return for rentals. The Cardinals could also offer JoJo a 1 year extenion and just continue to roll with him as their primary lefty out of the pen for now. If Romero were to cut his walk rate dramatically this year and still only strike out batters at a 21% clip, that could change the calculus to shift towards a sell and getting a more notable return. Absent of that, Romero might just be more valuable to the Cardinals and their slim playoff chances than he would be to a contender as a finishing piece.
Ryne Stanek – Sell
I think Ryne Stanek is different from JoJo Romero. I think it’s important to evaluate on a player-by-player basis, not just with a single blanket assessment, when it comes to contract status. When you look at the lefty reliever depth in the Cardinals’ upper minors, there’s not much of anything there. What might be more valuable to the Cardinals than Stanek is his spot in the bullpen. We saw a potential renaissance from a different Ryan (Fernandez) early this season. Potentially having a long-term answer on him would likely help give the Cardinals a clearer idea of what the future of the bullpen might look like.
Once again were going to use the last 3 years of data when it comes to Stanek, and the ERA is U.G.L.Y. He ain’t got no alibi. But, when you look at his FIP being almost a full run lower than his ERA, you can conclude that he hasn’t been AS bad as his surface level suggests. We reference the K-BB% not being all that dissimilar from JoJo’s, but with the increased walk rate, you also get the increased K rate, and that IS valuable to modern bullpen building practices.
I am not suggesting that Stanek would fetch the Cardinals a haul, but a lottery ticket and a more definitive long-term answer on Fernandez might be worth it in the team’s eyes, and the context in doing so shifts the conversation of additional long-term gain.
Lars Nootbaar – Hold
This scenario has more to do with Nootbaar’s injury status and the potential length of time to show health. Lars is expected to begin his minor league rehab assignment this week after double heel surgery this offseason to address a condition known as “Haglund’s Deformities.” Doctors essentially shaved down his heels, and this procedure has, in the past, made athletes more susceptible to Achilles injuries. Teams across the league are very familiar with Lars Nootbaar, his reputation, his batter’s eye, and the underlying metrics that make him a walking breakout candidate. With 1.5 years of control remaining by this year’s deadline, the Cardinals won’t have to trade him, and the likely scenario exists where acquiring teams aren’t going to be comfortable trading significant upside assets for 8 weeks of production and potential health. There will certainly be interest and teams sniffing around for a buy-low opportunity. I dont believe the Cardinals should consider just taking anything to get him off their hands, and I dont perceive Bloom as someone all that interested in selling low on an asset of which he probably has a good idea what an offseason deal could look like after 4+ months of health and production could prove to acquiring teams. A potential normal offseason heading into his final year of team control for whatever acquiring team would want him might bring a higher level of solace.
“It’s like making a trade” is everyone’s favorite eye roll statement. But, if the Cardinals return a healthy Lars Nootbaar and that offensive production replaces some of what you’re not getting from Victor Scott or even a Nathan Church flashes exciting upside, but the consistent production isn’t quite there and being able to install Nootbaar into the 5 spot in the lineup to give Jordan Walker additional protection and continue to lengthen the lineup would only add to the Cardinals legitimacy of being a surprise contender. So, if I were Bloom, I’d let him play out the string of the season and cash in on him in the offseason. This would also afford top prospect Josh Baez additional time to work out some of the quality of AB issues he’s experiencing at AAA and perhaps make him an early ROTY favorite in 2027 for a “Draft and develop” oriented team.
Blocked Prospects – Sell
Hear me out on this one. Because this one would challenge some Cardinals fans. A couple of examples come to mind. Think of the recent deal that the Cardinals made in dealing Andre Granillo for George Soriano. A lot of Cardinals fans were scratching their heads and perplexed by the idea of trading a younger, flexible, unproven reliever for one with, albeit limited experience and poor results, but the team identified something about him that they could mold into a leverage reliever. They’ve been right so far.
The Cardinals really believe in the current tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. I’m not saying you have to love it or agree with it. But that’s how they see things right now, and they’re committed to giving this tandem a full run, assuming health. Where does that leave Jimmy Crooks? The lefty-hitting Triple-A masher who, by all accounts, is a great game caller and presence behind the plate, but has a severe swing and miss and strikeout problem at AAA, and is essentially blocked by 2 established big league catchers. Leonardo Bernal, another catching prospect, who is splitting time with Crooks in AAA and has just as much, if not more, upside than Crooks as a Catcher long term, and let’s not forget super phenom prospect Rainel Rodriguez blazing his way through the minors not far behind.
When we had Eno Sarris on the podcast last month, it was his belief that it was Herrera standing in the way of Crooks, not Pages. The way I see the situation as it stands is that Jimmy is getting squeezed from both directions of the organization, and you might be able to extract value from him for a player from another org in a similar spot that could use a change with a more direct route to the big leagues. Prospect for Prospect deals are less common, but could make some logical sense if it helped the Cardinals obtain a long-term answer at a separate, undefined position? What about a blocked 3rd basemen? Do you believe in Gorman being more than he’s shown in his first 1800 PA, or do you still believe he can be more than that? I’m not convinced and would at least like the organization to have a legit threat to push his spot on the roster in a way that I don’t truly believe Blaze Jordan is, despite his incredible offensive performance in AAA thus far.
Boston and Pittsburgh pulled off such a deal last year, sending Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester. You go back even further, and I think of the deal that sent Jazz Chisolm from the Diamondbacks to the Marlins for Zac Gallen before either had ever debuted. There are ways to maximize Jimmy Crooks OR Blaze Jordan, who I think could fall into this category as well, but maybe to a lesser extent, given his age and low defensive positional value.
The Cardinals are off to an incredible start that nobody saw coming, and don’t appear intent on slowing down. This will make for a wildly fascinating navigation of the decisions looming ahead for Chaim Bloom. Unlike previous seasons, I’ve found it very difficult to truly argue with anything the Cardinals’ brain trust has done since September of last season. I hope that Bloom continues to stay the course and not course correct the way he will certainly be pressured to by fans and perhaps ownership, with whispers of hope of unexpected financial gain that comes with contention. A lot can still happen over the next 2 months, and like many of you, I’m eager to see how it plays out.
-Thanks for reading
(stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com)
