Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.
The second major championship of the 2026 PGA Tour season begins Thursday, May 14, and it’s a loaded 156-player field playing the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, Pa.
While World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy are at the top of the PGA Championship odds board, my PGA Championship predictions and weekly golf picks are headlined by Cameron Young and Russell Henley.
⛳ PGA Championship: Key takeaways
-
Best early bet: Cameron Young to win (+1200) – The complete package has been on full display, and it’s clear stylistically and statistically with Young checking all the boxes and cashing in wins, so I expect him to contend again this week
-
Best early value: Russell Henley to win (+5500) – Few can match Henley’s elite tee-to-green precision and touch on and around the greens, so this number stands out for a proven winner who’s also popped in recent major championships
-
Aronimink Golf Club: The intended defenses of this 7,394-yard Par 70 are unlikely to truly challenge the elite talents in May playing conditions
-
Weather: Rain early this week will soften conditions ahead of Rounds 1 and 2 where rain is again in the forecast before a sunny weekend
-
-
Expected cut: The PGA Championship features a cut to the Top 70 players and ties following the completion of Round 2
📊 PGA Championship odds: favorites & full field
The PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink Golf Club on Thursday, May 14 through Sunday, May 17, with 156 golfers in the field before a 36-hole cut to the Top 70 players and ties.
Golfer
Scottie Scheffler
+450
Rory McIlroy
+850
Cameron Young
+1200
Jon Rahm
+1600
Xander Schauffele
+1800
Bryson DeChambeau
+2000
Ludvig Åberg
+2000
Matt Fitzpatrick
+2200
Tommy Fleetwood
+2200
Brooks Koepka
+4000
Odds as of 4:30 p.m. on Tuesday, May 12.
Check out the full PGA Championship field, and our early PGA Championship long shots predictions.
Best bets card
Outright: Cameron Young to win (+1200): The statistics and confidence jump off the page, and Young ranking second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring have my attention.
Outright: Russell Henley to win (+5500): Aronimink sets up perfectly for Henley's tee-to-green game, and he has three consecutive Top 10s in major championships.
Top 20: Ludvig Aberg (-105): The tee-to-green game has been dialed during Aberg's run of seven Top 20s across his past eight events.
Top 40: Alex Fitzpatrick (+125): Elite tee-to-green play has paved the way to a pair of wins among five straight worldwide Top 10s.
Top 40: Alex Smalley (+130): Five consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board, Smalley sports the well-rounded game to continue his season-long surge.
Course breakdown: Aronimink Golf Club
Aronimink Golf Club, originally designed by legendary architect Donald Ross in 1928, underwent a massive 2017 restoration by Gil Hanse that recaptured its original championship identity.
Hanse sculpted the property back into a penalizing 7,394-yard Par 70, including notably more than doubling the bunker count to an eye-popping 174 bunkers. The clustered bunkering and severely contoured greens pair to make each hole more difficult the closer you are to the actual hole, which is a noted signature of Ross’ tracks.
These two characteristics are the best defenses of the course Ross himself dubbed his “masterpiece,” and it’s the only true course-management test where risk/reward decisions and shots will swing scores. Additionally, executing tough around-the-green looks will be the difference between making pars or bogeys multiple times a round.
Still, players will need to excel throughout the bag while managing aggressive play alongside taking what the course gives them to score.
Historical data from past events shows that while distance provides an edge, tee-to-green precision is required into the push-up greens at Aronimink. In particular, accuracy is critical to navigate the uneven lies and manage the difficult approach angles Hanse restored to protect the course from modern equipment.
Narrowed fairways shouldn’t surprise, either.
I am not anticipating those defenses to stand up, though. The last time the PGA Tour played Aronimink for the 2018 BMW Championship, there were 11 players who shot -16 or lower, with the winning score at -20.
While the elements could impact playing conditions, Philadelphia weather in May won’t allow the track to play firm and fast, so I’m not anticipating a true grind reminiscent of recent PGA Championships.
-
Narrowed fairways could test bomb-and-gouge driving
-
The 174 bunkers are clustered and can challenge depth perception
-
Accuracy is required tee-to-green, and especially with long irons
-
Massive and contoured green complexes feature run-offs
-
Intended course defenses are unlikely to hold up in May
Players to watch
-
Scottie Scheffler: With three consecutive solo-seconds while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, Scheffler’s ball-striking prowess has been on full display, and he’s a perfect course fit to go low at Aronimink.
-
Jon Rahm: Oddsmakers aren’t giving any discounts with the Spaniard, and Rahm's odds would likely be even shorter if he finished better in the Masters because he has the complete game to succeed at this shot-maker's track.
Key stats & player profiles to target
-
True strokes gained tee-to-green
-
Driving accuracy
-
Adjusted scoring average
-
Bogey avoidance
-
Scrambling and true strokes gained around-the-green
Players to watch
-
Cameron Young: The two-time 2026 winner has paced this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past seven events, while also winning twice and finishing T3 in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters, and Young ranks second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season.
-
Ludvig Aberg: It’s becoming automatic for Aberg, and he’s gained true strokes across the board, including ranking fourth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 13th in accuracy while carding four Top 5s across his past seven events.
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Cameron Young to win (+1200)
The two-time 2026 winner paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across a seven-event heater, while also winning twice and finishing T3 in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters. Cameron Young is impressively second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season, too.
-
Course Fit: Young's game travels without true weaknesses
-
Recent Form: Top 10s in six of past seven events with two wins
-
Key Stat: Fourth in adjusted scoring average this season
Risk: Young may have already peaked in 2026.
Pick 2: Russell Henley to win (+5500)
In addition to ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in driving accuracy across his past 18 events, Russell Henley also sits third in bogey avoidance, 11th in Par 4 scoring average and 16th in adjusted scoring average in 2026.
-
Course Fit: Aronimink sets up perfectly for his tee-to-green precision
-
Recent Form: Three straight Top 10s in majors, including T3 in Masters
-
Key Stat: Ranks third in bogey avoidance in 2026
Risk: Henley has never won a major championship.
Top placement bets
Pick 1: Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-105)
It’s next to automatic for Ludvig Aberg right now. He’s carded five Top 10s across his past six events while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches during the heater.
-
Course Fit: Aberg oozes the perfect precision-power combo
-
Recent Form: Elite run of seven Top 20s across past eight events
-
Key Stat: Ranks 10th in adjusted scoring average in 2026
Risk: Aberg's lone finish outside the Top 20 during highlighted heater was in the Masters.
Pick 2: Alex Fitzpatrick Top 40 (+125)
Alex Fitzpatrick followed up his T9 in the Cadillac Championship with a solo-fourth in the Truist while ranking second in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches across the two events.
-
Course Fit: Tee-to-green play is perfect for Aronimink
-
Recent Form: Pair of wins among five straight worldwide Top 10s
-
Key Stat: Elite 28.47% birdie-or-better percentage past two events
Risk: Fitzpatrick has only played in a single major championship.
Pick 3: Alex Smalley Top 40 (+140)
It’s been a solid season-long surge for Alex Smalley. He’s carded seven Top 25s across his past nine events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking 21st in tee-to-green play. His game is on the rise.
-
Course Fit: Accurate tee-to-green play and tidy putting will play
-
Recent Form: Five consecutive Top 25s with true strokes gained across the board
-
Key Stat: Ranks 21st in adjusted scoring average this season
Risk: Smalley has limited experience in major championships.
Odds movement & market notes
Unsurprisingly, reigning PGA Champion and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opened as the betting favorite at BetMGM, and his +450 odds have a PGA Championship win probability of 18.2%. Scheffler is followed by back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy and two-time 2026 winner Cameron Young to form a clear Top 3.
It’s far more interesting to me that Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are next in line. Both played poorly in the Masters, after all.
Two-time major champion Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood join Rahm and DeChambeau in a secondary favorites tier before the odds fall off a cliff to Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose and Justin Thomas at +4000.
I’m also particularly interested in tracking Rickie Fowler’s odds this week. He’s found a stride, is a popular target for bettors historically, and is a long +6600 to win. This is far from an endorsement to bet on Fowler, but he’s definitely got my attention as a long-shot candidate and player to monitor.
How to watch the PGA Championship & tee times (quick links)
How to watch:
-
Thursday-Friday: 12-8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
-
Saturday-Sunday: 10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET (ESPN), 1-7 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
-
Rounds 1 and 2
PGA Championship betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 PGA Championship favorite?
World No. 1 and reigning PGA Championship winner Scottie Scheffler (+450) is the betting favorite at BetMGM.
When is the 2026 PGA Championship?
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played from Thursday, May 14, to Sunday, May 17.
Where will the 2026 PGA Championship be played?
The 2026 PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, PA.
What are PGA Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do PGA Championship matchup bets work?
When betting PGA Championship matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the PGA Championship cut line?
The PGA Championship features a cut to the Top 70 players and ties following the completion of Round 2.
Are PGA Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the PGA Championship; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
