Based on almost all preseason projections, the St. Louis Cardinals have outperformed expectations and have shifted the fan view from rebuilding to contending in just a couple short months. Now, as Chaim Bloom has to answer the question “buy or sell”, fans also wonder what this hot start means for this season and beyond. The original thought was that this year would give us some answers on much of the roster, but what we did not anticipate was that those answers would result in a rebuild that is years ahead of schedule. So that brings me to my question this week: Most of us expected a painful season but we are getting the complete opposite. Because of that, are we allowed to be disappointed in the Cardinals this year if they finish below .500 or miss the playoffs?
As a lifelong fan, I always go into every season with high expectations and good vibes, even if the team is not looking so hot on paper. Even if I disagree with the lineup or roster decisions, I am still going to cheer for a 10-0 shutout win. I would much rather be wrong about a player I thought was bad than be right and see them continue to struggle. And this year, my expectations were higher than most and I am beyond happy with how the season has started. In our recent Redbird Rundown episode with Joe Roderick, we handed out quarter grades and I gave the whole team an A, even though some individuals received plenty of marks worse. Now, if that A grade drops to say, a C by the All-Star break, will I be upset? 100% yes, but that is because I want my team to go 162-0 despite the need for this reset season.
The Cardinals have outperformed this year. If they miss the playoffs, does this season become a disappointment?
To give you my answer right away, yes, I will be disappointed if the Cardinals miss the postseason again, but that is the case every year for me. From a zoomed out perspective, though, that may not be fair for this season specifically. The main objective for this season was simply to get answers on the current roster after shipping off the high-priced and underperforming veterans who did not fit into the timeline for the next competitive St. Louis Cardinals team. Through the first two-plus months of the season, I would say that they are well on the way of fulfilling that mission thanks to phenomenal performances by Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt, while Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Nathan Church have all shown plenty enough to be considered for the long(er)-term.
The other spots on the lineup taken up by Victor Scott II, Nolan Gorman, and Pedro Pages have created additional conversations of their own, with fans and surely the organization wondering where they all fit beyond this year. Scott has been a massive disappointment, especially after hearing about all of the work he did in the offseason to rework his swing and become more than a stellar defensive center fielder. With Lars Nootbaar returning in the next couple of weeks, the outfield competition is going to be one to keep an eye on. At third, Gorman has been my own personal disappointment as I was excited to see a truly uninterrupted “runway” on defense and in the middle-ish of the order. So far, he is simply showing that what we have seen is who is going to be, with a little better glove than we anticipated. On a team with other run producers and table setters in the order, a.220 batting average and .700 OPS would not be a huge detriment, but when he was expected to be one of the boppers, I understand why Cardinal Nation remains down on his future. As for Pages… I’ll let all of you sound off in the comments about his role with the team. Whether Jimmy Crooks is ready or not, I personally feel it is time to see at least one of the catching prospects get their shot in St. Louis, with Pages then moving into the Yohel Pozo role. We talked with Kyle Reis this week, and he noted that the clubhouse culture is so good right now that the team likely does not want to upset the vibe, so Kyle went as far to say go ahead and send Thomas Saggese down and have four catchers on the roster. Not a bad idea as Saggese would definitely fall into the disappointing category, but is still just 24-years-old so some additional time in Memphis would be best for everyone.
On the pitching side, I personally feel what we are seeing is what the expectations were for the starting five. While the minor leagues has the more exciting arsenals, we are still a little bit away from seeing those arms in the bigs and the major league staff has done exactly what was needed this year. The team obviously hoped to get a little more from Kyle Leahy in the rotation, but he has been completely serviceable thus far. Unfortunately, his service would be better on a team with more exciting arms, but being surrounded by Andre Pallante overshadows his overall effectiveness. There are no complaints from me about Michael McGreevy, although I am nervous for how potentially ugly it could get if the metrics catch up to his real life performance. Matthew Liberatore and Dustin May have been just fine, despite both probably having a little higher expectations coming into the year.
The bullpen rollercoaster is never fun, regardless of a rebuild or competitive window, but holy cow what a ride we have had so far. Riley O’Brien has performed like a top closer in all of baseball, but in my opinion, is best used as a trade piece alongside JoJo Romero and Ryne Stanek. Unfortunately, removing this many arms would create an even scarier reliever alignment, which could cause the team to tumble from contender to rebuild, especially if Matt Svanson and crew are unable to right the ship.
It is that realistic situation that makes me a little uneasy about getting my hopes up too much in May. As someone who is financially invested in the Cardinals’ win totals and potential to make the playoffs, I hope they continue on this amazing run, but the recent comments from Chaim Bloom about the deadline strategy keeps me from counting all the money in the bank. Recently, Bloom said the plan remains to build towards the future but they could get “creative” to keep the young core together and plug some holes that may also have some long-term value. Reading not-so in between the lines, veterans and those on one-year deals may not want to put the finishing touches on their St. Louis residence just yet. This means guys like O’Brien, May, Romero, Stanek, and even Lars Nootbaar and/or Ramon Urias could find themselves playing for a different organization before the summer concludes. Over on Twitter, I asked if the replacements for those subtractions would really be that much of a difference from the current contingent. The overwhelming response was no, and those new bodies might even be better.
In the bullpen, I do not necessarily agree. The Memphis Shuttle has not run as often as it typically has in the past, so any reinforcements would come in the form of Chris Roycroft, Ryan Fernandez, and Hunter Dobbins before diving into the non-40-man options. Outside of Dobbins, the other two would be a fresh arm replacement for someone in the big league bullpen, rather than heavy artillery coming in to close the door. In this potential outcome, it is a very real possibility that starters’ outings and solid early game offense could be wasted with late game collapses, causing a tumble down the standings and, therefore, my feeling of disappointment towards the season. In that case, the answer to my question is a definitive yes, although I am very strongly against dealing from the depth for bullpen relief. For my armchair GM capabilities, I would simply live on the waiver wire and dumpster dive my way into a diamond in the rough while churning over spots 38-40 on the roster.
It is no surprise that the stellar start to the Cardinals’ season has altered fan perspective on the year, but is that fair to the team? I think so. The players and coaches in the dugout never came into the season expecting to lose, quite the opposite honestly. Everyone on the roster expected this team to be competitive and we are seeing all 26/40 guys pulling on the same end of the rope. Any roster shakeup would come with the potential of messing up that clubhouse aura, and with the overall goal of this year being to find who will be here for the future, it makes the most sense to stay the course.
Let me hear what you think! If the team hovers at or below .500 for the rest of the year, will this year be a failure? Is this a playoff caliber team? Time to cash in on prospects?
Thanks as always!
