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The Los Angeles Angels visit Progressive Field for Game 1 of a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians.
Joey Cantillo and his filthy changeup have been tough to beat, and my Angels vs. Guardians predictions expect Cantillo to dominate this Angels lineup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, May 11.
Who will win Angels vs Guardians today: Guardians -1.5 (+130)
The Cleveland Guardians send Joey Cantillo to the mound tonight against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that ranks 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and owns the worst walk rate in baseball.
Cantillo's changeup grades at the 88th percentile in run value, and his 95th-percentile release point makes him difficult to square up consistently.
Without a named starter, the Angels figure to deploy their bullpen tonight, and Los Angeles relievers have surrendered home runs at the highest rate in baseball over the last two weeks.
With too much juice on the moneyline, take Cleveland to cover the run line instead.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Cantillo has been one of the better bets in baseball this season, going 6-2 in his starts while generating +4.51 units for bettors.
Angels vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+104)
Wind blowing in off Lake Erie on a chilly May night sets the table for a low-scoring affair.
Cantillo has held opponents to a .294 BABIP with a 75% strand rate in 2026 despite pedestrian underlying stuff.
The Angels rank 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and own the worst walk rate in baseball, while Cleveland has been equally futile offensively, posting a 91 wRC+ over that same stretch.
Neither lineup has shown the consistency to threaten this number, and Los Angeles has gone Under the total in eight of their last 10 games.
Phil Naessens' 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 5-11, -5.05 units
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Over/Under bets: 6-8, -3.30 units
Angels vs Guardians odds
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Moneyline: Angels +144 | Guardians -150
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Run line: Angels +1.5 (-144) | Guardians -1.5 (+117)
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Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-127) | Under 7.5 (-117)
Angels vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Guardians.
How to watch Angels vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date
Monday, May 11, 2026
First pitch
6:10 p.m. ET
TV
ABTV, Guardians.TV
Angels starting pitcher
TBD
Guardians starting pitcher
Joey Cantillo
(2-1, 3.43 ERA)
Angels vs Guardians latest injuries
Angels vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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