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The collective eyes of the golf world prepare to turn to the second major of the 2026 season, and the PGA Championship odds and win probabilities project another two-horse race between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — gives Scheffler (the reigning PGA champion) a 17% chance to defend the Wanamaker Trophy. McIlroy (the reigning Masters champion) has seen his win probability improve to 11% while moving up this week's Truist Championship leaderboard.
Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa., hosts this year's tournament as McIlroy looks for the second leg of the season grand slam and Scheffler seeks his fifth career major win.
Below you'll find up-to-date PGA Championship odds, plus information on the favorites, the course, and more to help with your golf picks. The final two spots in the 156-man PGA Championship field will go to the winners of this week's Truist Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic, if not already exempt.
📊 Live PGA Championship odds
Golfer
Win probability
Scottie Scheffler
+500
17%
Rory McIlroy
+800
11%
Cameron Young
+1300
7.2%
Jon Rahm
+1750
5.4%
Xander Schauffele
+1900
5%
Bryson DeChambeau
+2300
4.1%
Ludvig Aberg
+2400
4%
Matt Fitzpatrick
+2400
4%
Tommy Fleetwood
+2500
3.9%
Justin Rose
+4500
2.2%
Odds as of 2:15 p.m. on Friday, May 8.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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⭐ PGA Championship favorites
Scottie Scheffler (17%)
Scottie Scheffler has been fetching short odds at all four majors for nearly two years, and that hasn't changed in 2026. The World No. 1 lapped the field a year ago, winning by five shots at Quail Hollow Club, and he's finished inside the Top 10 four other times since his PGA Championship debut in 2020. I expect his odds to rise slightly by Monday morning, as he's not playing in this week's precursor Signature Event alongside other top contenders from the PGA Tour.
Rory McIlroy (9.4%)
The back-to-back Masters champ finished T47 in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last year despite entering the week as a popular choice at a course he's won on many times before. Still, the two-time champ is in great form, and he did finish T12, T7, and eighth in the three previous editions of the PGA. He's the favorite to win this week's Truist Championship Signature Event.
2026 PGA Championship pick to win
Tommy Fleetwood (3.9%, +2500)
I'm rushing out to invest in Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 PGA Championship before the end of the Truist Championship.
The reigning FedEx Cup champion started his PGA Tour with a top-10 finish in four of his first five events, but he slumped from the Masters through the Cadillac Championship. That helped to inflate his PGA Championship odds, ahead of a strong showing in the Truist Championship, which had him second on the leaderboard entering his third round. He gained 2.12 strokes per round with his putter, while adding 0.61 strokes gained: approach.
Putting is usually what has kept Fleetwood from championship trophies. With a hot flat stick this week, I'm locking in this pick before his odds shorten by Monday morning.
⚖️ PGA Championship prop odds
Here are some of the additional PGA Championship trading markets and live odds from Kalshi:
Round 1 leader odds
Will there be a hole-in-one?
🆚 2026 PGA Championship field
The 2026 PGA Championship field was announced Tuesday. The field sits at 154 golfers, including 15 former champions and 29 major champions. The final two spots will be awarded to the winners of this week's Truist Championship and Myrtle Beach Classic, if not already exempt.
Neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson is in the field.
⛳ Aronimink Golf Club course info
Aronimink Golf Club is a Donald Ross-designed track in Newtown Square, Pa., that plays as a Par 70 at nearly 7,300 yards. The course last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962 and has hosted the 2003 Senior PGA and 2020 Women's PGA since then.
📖 PGA Championship opening odds
Golfer
Opening odds
Scottie Scheffler
+400
Rory McIlroy
+700
Bryson DeChambeau
+1200
Jon Rahm
+1600
Ludvig Åberg
+2000
Xander Schauffele
+2000
Collin Morikawa
+2500
Justin Thomas
+2500
Tommy Fleetwood
+2500
Viktor Hovland
+3500
Joaquin Niemann
+4000
Patrick Cantlay
+4000
Tyrrell Hatton
+4000
Hideki Matsuyama
+5000
Brooks Koepka
+5000
Opening odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
📜 PGA Championship past winner odds
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). With that said, we've also seen massive longshots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).
Year
Golfer
Odds
2025
Scottie Scheffler
+650
2024
Xander Schauffele
+1400
2023
Brooks Koepka
+2000
2022
Justin Thomas
+1600
2021
Phil Mickelson
+20000
2020
Collin Morikawa
+3000
2019
Brooks Koepka
+1000
2018
Brooks Koepka
+1800
2017
Justin Thomas
+3500
2016
Jimmy Walker
+12500
2015
Jason Day
+1200
Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
🎟️ How to trade on the PGA Championship
The PGA Championship is one of the most bet golf events of the year, so naturally, many will be placing their first golf picks on the tournament. If that happens to be you, we've got you covered with our beginner's guide to how to bet on golf.
The most popular way to bet on golf is by simply picking the winner, which is referred to as an outright. There are plenty of other ways to wager on most golf betting sites, however, including top finishers, head-to-head matchups, and plenty of props.
🏌️ More major championship odds
Event
Favorite
U.S. Open odds
Scottie Scheffler
+350
Open Championship odds
Scottie Scheffler
+400
Masters odds (2027)
Scottie Scheffler
+450
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of May 9.
❓ PGA Championship odds FAQs
Who has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship, with an 17% win probability from Kalshi.
How often are 2026 PGA Championship odds updated?
Books can adjust PGA Championship futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy betting action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.
Do favorites usually win the PGA Championship?
Not always. PGA Championship outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.
What’s the best way to trade on the PGA Championship besides outrights?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.
