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The New York Liberty’s title defense fizzled out with a first-round playoff exit last year, but they’re back with another stacked roster as the 2026 season tips off tonight against the Connecticut Sun.
While there are still things to figure out for a New York team with Chris DeMarco taking over as head coach and no Sabrina Ionescu for the opening weeks, my Sun vs. Liberty predictions expect Breanna Stewart to be a much-needed constant as the No. 1 scoring option.
Check out my WNBA picks for this May 8 matchup, which suggests a rough start for Connecticut.
Sun vs Liberty prediction
Sun vs Liberty best bet: Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points (-115)
Despite a terrific season, Breanna Stewart averaged fewer than 20 PPG last year for the first time since 2020. But I’m expecting Stewie to find her offense again, especially with the New York Liberty shorthanded for this season opener.
New York will be without Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, Leonie Fiebich, and Rebecca Allen for tonight’s clash with the Connecticut Sun, and that’s going to put the ball in Stewart’s hands more often. Pencil her in for 15+ shots.
Stewart averages 20.5 PPG across her career, and the Sun feel overmatched in the frontcourt here after Tina Charles’ retirement this week.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Thriving on the Barclays Center stage, Stewart scored 23+ points in five of her first seven home games last season.
Sun vs Liberty same-game parlay
The logic for big production from Jonquel Jones is similar to the case for Stewart. Connecticut’s Brittney Griner can’t be in two places at once defensively, and Jones should walk into some easy rebounds in this one.
JJ began the 2025 season with 10+ boards in five of her first six outings, and the Liberty will need their veteran frontcourt to show up in this one to paper over a lengthy injury list.
New York posted a 17-5 mark at Barclays Center last year, and there’s a recipe for more home cooking here against a Sun squad that finished with a 11-33 record in 2025.
While tonight’s spread feels a little inflated, the Liberty are 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and I’m backing their talent edge to get them over the line.
Sun vs Liberty SGP
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Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points
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Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 rebounds
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Liberty moneyline
Sun vs Liberty first basket scorer: Brittney Griner (+400)
Griner made seven of her nine shots against the Liberty in preseason action last weekend, with three of those buckets coming in the first quarter, and Connecticut’s best chance of keeping the score close is to ride its most proven scorer.
Though Griner didn’t get going in Atlanta last season, look for her 2026 numbers to mirror her final few years with the Phoenix Mercury, and that starts with steady looks in the paint.
With the Liberty forced into starting lineup tweaks around Stewart and Jones, the Sun may also be able to exploit miscommunications that leave guards switched onto Griner.
Sun vs Liberty odds
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Spread: Sun +10 | Liberty -10
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Moneyline: Sun +475 | Liberty -650
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Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Sun vs Liberty trend
The Sun were just 4-18 SU on the road last season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Liberty
Location
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Date
Friday, May 8, 2026
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ION
Sun vs Liberty latest injuries
Sun: Leila Lacan (Out).
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu (Out), Satou Sabally (Out), Leonie Fiebich (Out), Rebecca Allen (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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