The biggest value that Thursday night’s NFL schedule release and the subsequent opening lines from sportsbooks provide are the added data points to help us understand what the betting market thinks of all 32 teams, as we hone our preparation for the season.
However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few betting opportunities along the way, as we look at the early board with one goal in mind: Secure the extensive closing line value that often occurs, considering how much can happen to move said lines between now and kickoff.
In order to achieve that, we’ve got a small checklist for each of the available games to bet on:
Value from our projections at THE WINDOW, based on information already gleaned from futures markets
Finding matchups between a team with upside to their rating against teams with downside to theirs
Capturing “key” numbers now, knowing that it will take a significant change in circumstances for the bet to lose value in a big way
Ideally, we bank a handful of tickets that we’ll be pleasantly surprised to find have gained considerably more valuable, when we turn the page to a specific week of the season. All while not putting too much of a dent in our bankroll, which should be relatively dormant during the offseason.
Find NFL tickets on Gametime | More NFL team schedules
Here are five wagers to make right now:
Week 1: NY Jets at Titans (-2.5, 38.5)
It’s not exactly a Week 1 headliner, but value doesn’t care about TV ratings, and taking the Titans under a field goal should age pretty well.
Even if it doesn’t, most around the NFL would say that the two teams that lost the most expected value because of coaching in 2025 were the Jets and the Titans. Well, one team replaced their head coach, and the other didn’t.
Optimism for the Jets translates to a modest 5.5-win projection, but their big move was to acquire quarterback Geno Smith — and no bettor wanted anything to do with the Raiders at the end of Smith’s tenure last season in Las Vegas. Just because the win total is low, doesn’t mean there isn’t room to be worse than the projection.
As for the Titans, they were lost with Brian Callahan, and disinterested after he was fired. That’s not going to fly under Robert Saleh. QB Cam Ward will have better talent around him, and a better plan with a legitimate offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll. While that wouldn’t be enough to like the Titans against most teams in Week 1, a home game against the Jets is a soft start, as we have them projected as 3.9-point favorites.
Bet: Titans -2.5 (-110)
Week 4 (London, England): Colts (-1, 50.5) vs. Commanders
At the beginning of the 2025 season, the Commanders were rated like a team that would beat an average NFL team around 60% of the time. Then Jayden Daniels got hurt, Washington’s season came apart and the betting market was forced to guess what the Commanders’ power rating should be with Marcus Mariota, and then Josh Johnson at the helm.
Meanwhile, the Colts went from being rated around 10% below a league-average NFL team, to perceived as a playoff contender, after a 7-1 start. Even before a resurgent QB Daniel Jones got hurt in Jacksonville, the Colts had dropped three of four, needing a comeback win in overtime overseas to avoid what could have eventually been a nine-game losing streak to end the season.
Play 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One and make your picks for the world's biggest soccer tournament
Knock on wood, but both quarterbacks should be at full health by Week 4’s game in London. If that’s the case, Washington could find its way back into the playoff-contender level at which they began 2025. Meanwhile, there’s no guarantee the Colts do the same, since they needed an all-world start from Jonathan Taylor last season, and a schedule where only two of those seven wins came against above-average opponents — the Chargers and Broncos (thanks to a dubious personal foul call on a missed last-second field goal that gave the Colts a redo).
Let’s grab the Commanders after shopping around here, predicting that, if nothing else, they’ll be laying points come the first Sunday in October (as they already are at several books).
Bet: Commanders +1 (-110)
Week 4: Cardinals at NY Giants (-7, 45.5)
The Cardinals are lined at 4.5 wins this season, and my question is, “why?”
The short answer is that Arizona finished last season 1-14, and is perceived to be starting a journeyman QB in what’s expected to be another lost season in the desert. However, the Cardinals’ bad record shouldn’t fall at the feet (or arm) of Jacoby Brissett, who was statistically more efficient than Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and his presumed counterpart in Week 1, Justin Herbert. All without any semblance of a running game, something that should be helped by the additions of Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier.
Defensively, the Cards were a disaster under their defensive head coach, but they were also ravaged by injuries in the secondary, and they only got flashes of brilliance from oft-injured first-round pick, Walter Nolen III.
For our second Week 4 matchup, our projection of Giants -6.6 is about right, but it includes an optimistic view of New York under John Harbaugh. There’s a real possibility that the market gets more interested in the Cardinals before the season starts, as their win total is tamped down by being in a tough division, and this is a bet that doesn’t require victory from Arizona, anyway.
Bet: Cardinals +7 (-110)
TEMPE, ARIZONA – MAY 08: Jeremiyah Love #4 of the Arizona Cardinals practices in team rookie mincamp at Dignity Health Arizona Cardinals Training Center on May 08, 2026 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Christian Petersen via Getty Images)
Week 11 (Mexico City, Mexico): Vikings vs. 49ers (-4.5, 46.5)
The 49ers survived so many injuries last season that we had to start doing our own research about local Bay Area power substations.
I’m sure 38,000-plus travel miles should help that cause …
If you’re looking to fade San Francisco, against a tougher schedule this season, then it’s probably the later the better.
There’s enough current optimism for the 2026 season that the 49ers carry a much-better-than-average power rating, but there’s room for that to regress towards the mean in the NFL.
That’s where the Vikings are located, but Minnesota got next-to-no quarterback play last year. While Kevin O’Connell isn’t guaranteed to perform a QB reclamation, Kyler Murray has enough tools that it wouldn’t be shocking if the Vikings climbed back into playoff contention, and a power rating that comes with it, by Week 11.
Our projection at THE WINDOW suggests that this should be 49ers -2.4. With some room on the low-side for San Francisco, what could easily be a higher floor for the Vikings, and another long trip for the 49ers, it’s worth grabbing +4.5 now.
Bet: Vikings +4.5 (-118)
Week 13: Bears at Lions (-2.5, 53.5)
Let’s put a cap on the lag time for these bets at Thanksgiving. Partly to appease those who don’t like to tie up funds, but also because there’s a significant gap on our projections compared to what’s available.
Based on season win total betting alone, and even average home-field advantage, we’d expect the Lions to be -4.5 in this game.
Of course, there’s all kinds of positive assumptions being made about the Bears after a wildly successful (and dramatic) season in Year 1 under Ben Johnson. However, even amidst their 11 wins, they got blown out in Detroit early, and were shut out for three quarters in the Week 18 matchup at Soldier Field — long after the Lions were eliminated.
While Detroit’s path to a division title is among the toughest because of the other teams in the NFC North, a Lions’ win total of 10.5 means they’re expected to bounce back nicely after missing the playoffs. If that’s the case, grabbing Detroit under a field goal can’t be a terrible idea.
Bet: Lions -2.5 (-110)
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor Matt Russell at THE WINDOW.
