Upsets color NCAA tournament brackets red every year. They happen in the women's game. You just have to know where to look.
While teams seeded No. 14-16 are a combined 1-372 all-time — 16th-seeded Harvard stunned top-seeded Stanford in 1998 — No. 13 seeds and, more frequently, No. 12 seeds, have stirred some madness in March.
At least one No. 12 seed has won a game in eight of the past 12 tournaments, and No. 12 seeds have won 31 games since the field expanded in 1994, according to the NCAA.
In other words, teams seeded 12 and higher are definitely fit to play the role of Cinderella. And who knows, maybe even a team seeded lower than that will make waves this year.
Here are six potential Cinderellas that could bust your bracket:
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Princeton
Seed: 9
Record: (26-3, 12-2 Ivy League)
First round vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State (Regional 2 – Sacramento)
Since mid-December, the Tigers have had a consistent presence in the AP Top 25. Carla Berube is in her sixth season as head coach, and she's now led Princeton to five straight NCAA tournament appearances. That streak would be at six had the dance not been canceled in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. After all, the Tigers were 26-1 in 2019-20, ranking as high as No. 21 in the AP Poll. Their lone loss that season came in overtime against an Iowa team that included a young Gabbie Marshall and Kate Martin.
Princeton may have three losses this time around, but it's ranked as high as No. 19 in the AP Poll. The Tigers beat a 25-win Villanova team on Nov. 12, then took down American Conference regular-season champion Rice a week later. Before Ivy League play started, the Tigers also picked up victories over A-10 champion Rhode Island, Seton Hall and a 23-win George Mason squad. Aside from an early-season defeat to then-No. 9 Maryland, Princeton's only two losses came against a 20-win Columbia team.
This season's Tigers team has five players averaging double-digit scoring figures. Madison St. Rose spearheads that group with 15.7 points per game, and both Fadima Tall (13.2 ppg) and Skye Belker (12.8 ppg) are shooting north of 36% from deep. That crew is a big reason why Princeton ranks 35th nationally in offensive rating (108.7), according to Her Hoop Stats. Berube's Tigers have reached the second round of the NCAA tournament twice. Maybe the program's first Sweet 16 appearance will be in the cards this year.
Fairfield
Seed: 11
Record: (28-4, 19-1 MAAC)
First round vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (Regional 1 – Fort Worth)
Kaety L’Amoreaux, Fairfield’s leading scorer, was also part of last year’s team that fell to Kansas State in the first round of the NCAA tournament. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) (Michael Hickey via Getty Images)
There's something to be said about dominant mid-major schools finally breaking through in the NCAA tournament to unleash a bit of chaos. Only eight teams seeded No. 13 or lower have won a first-round game on the women's side, per the NCAA, and seven of those eight were automatic qualifiers who generally (1) mopped the floor in conference competition and (2) had NCAA tournament experience or would string together appearances soon after.
Although Fairfield is seeded 11th this year, its résumé is reminiscent of those upset-achieving teams. The Stags were seeded 13th in 2024 and 12th in 2025. They lost in the first round both times, first against Indiana and then against Kansas State, and it wasn't close. But Fairfield is a combined 58-2 in MAAC play since the start of the 2023-24 campaign. They've cracked in the AP Top 25 in two of those three seasons, including this one, which began with them knocking off Villanova on Nov. 5, beating a 20-win South Florida squad eight days after that and then, in December, besting a top A-10 team in Richmond that returned three of its top-four scorers from the team that won the program's first NCAA tournament game last season and is now in the First Four.
Along the way, head coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis' crew played North Carolina and Iowa tough. The Tar Heels and Hawkeyes were each ranked No. 11 at the time of those games. Fairfield staked itself to multi-possession leads through the first quarter on both occasions. The Stags stagnated in the second quarter versus UNC and Iowa, but that's the only frame that really separated the teams in those meetings. Led by junior guard Kaety L'Amoreaux (17.6 ppg) and junior forward Meghan Andersen (16 ppg), Fairfield is top 40 in both offensive rating (108.3) and defensive rating (82.6), per Her Hoop Stats. Plus, the Stags can shoot the heck out of the ball. They've made 14 or more 3-pointers in 10 games this season.
Murray State
Seed: 12
Record: (31-3, 19-1 MVC)
First round vs. No. 5 Maryland (Regional 1 – Fort Worth)
Like Fairfield, Murray State suffered a blowout loss in last year's NCAA tournament. That said, the Racers are back and even better this time around. Two of their top three scorers from the 2024-25 squad, which ended the program's 16-season March Madness drought, have supplied plenty of firepower this season. Junior guard Halli Poock is 11th in the country with 22.1 points per game, and her classmate and backcourt partner, Haven Ford, is chipping in 17.1 a game. Murray State's also gotten a lift from Indiana transfer Sharnecce Currie-Jelks, who started her career earning OVC Freshman of the Year honors at UT Martin and now is making her mark in the Racers' frontcourt with 17.9 points and 11.7 rebounds per contest. She leads the nation with 25 double-doubles this season.
Fittingly, head coach Rechelle Turner's team can push the pace. They're near the top of the country in that category for the third season in a row, according to Her Hoop Stats. Similar to Princeton, Murray State's calling card is its offense. The Racers don't have the non-conference résumé of some of the other teams on this list, but they, too, beat a strong George Mason team before going 19-1 in Missouri Valley Conference action. That's their best conference record to date, and perhaps that momentum can propel them to a couple wins in the NCAA tournament.
South Dakota State
Seed: 11
Record: (27-6, 14-2 Summit)
First round vs. No. 6 Washington (Regional 4 – Sacramento)
Brooklyn Meyer, currently the nation’s 10th-leading scorer, helped South Dakota State beat Oklahoma State in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament. (Photo by Daniel Passapera/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) (Daniel Passapera via Getty Images)
The Jackrabbits have been knocking on the door of another Sweet 16 appearance. The slipper fits because they're a lesser-known mid-major, but fans of the program know its history. South Dakota State won a Division II national title before making the jump to D-I.
Aaron Johnston was coaching the team then, and he's still at the helm today. He understands what it takes to win NCAA tournament games. The Jackrabbits have won a game in the dance two of the past three seasons. Last year, they took down Oklahoma State before running into a national title-bound UConn. Two years before that, they upset USC before falling to a Virginia Tech team that was headed to the Final Four.
This season, South Dakota State lost a Summit League game for the first time since the 2021-22 campaign, but the Jackrabbits still won the conference tournament and finished 27-6. Another prolific offensive team, they're piloted by senior forward Brooklyn Meyer. She's 10th nationally with 22.4 points per game.
Colorado State
Seed: 12
Record: (27-7, 15-5 Mountain West)
First round vs. No. 5 Michigan State (Regional 4 – Sacramento)
Colorado State is riding a nine-game win streak that carried into the Mountain West tournament, which Ryun Williams' team won for the first time since 2016. That's the last time the Rams went dancing, and now they're back in the field.
CSU isn't an offensive juggernaut. The Rams have put up more than 75 points on a mere five occasions this season. They rank in the bottom third nationally in pace, according to Her Hoop Stats, but that also factors into them giving up just 54.9 points per game, the seventh fewest nationally.
CSU is sound on the defensive end of the court, where it's registered the 63rd-best defensive rating (87.2) in the country and the 17th-highest defensive rebounding rate (74.7%), per Her Hoop Stats. Three players on the team — Lexus Bargesser, Brooke Carlson and Hannah Ronsiek — are averaging at least one steal a game. They just so happen to be three of the group's top-five leading scorers. Bargesser, a senior guard, leads the charge with 15.2 points per game and a 40.7% clip from downtown. No team takes care of the ball better than CSU, as evidenced by its 10.4 turnovers per game, the fewest in D-I. The Rams are top 25 in free-throw percentage as well. Those two things alone can make a difference in the NCAA tournament.
Rhode Island
Seed: 11
Record: (28-4, 16-2 A-10)
First round vs. No. 6 Alabama (Regional 3 – Fort Worth)
There's another Rams team with an even more impressive win streak. That's URI, which rattled off 17 consecutive victories between Dec. 3 and Feb. 14. That propelled the Rams to a 14-0 start in A-10 play. They finished the regular season tied with George Mason atop the conference standings. Then they beat George Mason in the A-10 championship game. That's how URI punched its ticket to its first NCAA tournament in 30 years. When the Rams last made it in 1996, Linda Ziemke was head coach. Now Tammi Reiss has the keys to the program, and she's guided URI to a program-best 28 wins, a mark she's helped reset three times in her seven-year tenure.
One of those 2025-26 victories came against then-No. 16 North Carolina State. The Rams' only other win over a ranked opponent took place on Dec. 3, 2023, according to the Associated Press, when they took down Princeton at home. But their triumph against N.C. State was notably on the road.
It's hard to know what to expect from URI in the NCAA tournament. It hasn't been there in three decades. And while it has some solid wins to its name, its Jekyll-and-Hyde results against a First Four team like Richmond invite that uncertainty. The Rams defeated the Spiders by double digits on Dec. 30 and then lost to the Spiders by double digits on Feb. 25. Regardless, it's easy to imagine URI emitting some March magic. Five Rams players are averaging at least nine points per game. Senior guard Brooklyn Gray (12.5 ppg), a transfer from Saint Louis, headlines that corps. Similar to CSU, URI is going to slow down the pace and play good defense. Only five teams are allowing fewer points per game (53.8) than the Rams.
