STERLING, Va. — One way or another, LIV Golf is about to look very different from its present form. The breakaway tour will lose access to Saudi Arabian billions after the conclusion of this season, and that means hard choices are ahead.
LIV Golf CEO Scott O’Neil is bullish on the tour’s ability not just to survive, but to thrive. But O’Neil is forthright about the tour’s need for stars. Fans might enjoy golf as a sport, but they connect with a Bryson DeChambeau or a Jon Rahm. LIV is player-focused, but if the players start looking for a way out, LIV version 2.0 could be in real trouble.
Several players have already left LIV, some because of relegation (Henrik Stenson), others because they sought a path back to the PGA Tour (Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed). The Tour offered Koepka a pathway back that involved fines and a square-one tournament entry starting spot. Reed has had to sit out of PGA Tour events for a year, dating back to last August, before he’s eligible to play in Tour events again.
Let’s break down the scenarios for several significant LIV players and categories:
Bryson DeChambeau
The most important man in golf. DeChambeau’s vast popularity means he’s a desirable commodity for any tour. His LIV contract runs out at the end of this season, but he’s stressed that he wants to be a part of any future LIV format. O’Neil has indicated that DeChambeau has been actively involved in discussions about the tour’s future.
On the other hand, the PGA Tour has just revised its social media guidelines to allow players to retain their YouTube channels and post certain shots from their Tour events, a change that is obviously geared at getting the world’s most famous professional YouTube golfer interested in the Tour again.
On the third hand: DeChambeau was one of the early defectors to LIV, and more than that, he was one of the parties of a lawsuit against the PGA Tour. Could the understandable anti-Bryson sentiment among the rank-and-file of the PGA Tour keep him in the LIV camp? DeChambeau will bring in eyeballs and revenue, and that would go a long way toward soothing, or ignoring, hurt feelings.
“There's a lot of moving parts like in any business,” DeChambeau told the golf website Flushing It last month. “It’s a startup, right? And so there's going to be times where we're squeezed and punched. This is one of those moments. But I'm going to do everything in my power to make it work and I really see the value in franchise golf.”
Prediction: He stays, but with a far more lucrative deal (substantial equity in the league itself) than any other player.
Jon Rahm (R) congratulates Bryson Dechambeau (L) after winning the playoff and the LIV Golf South Africa tournament in March. (Photo by WIKUS DE WET / AFP via Getty Images) (WIKUS DE WET via Getty Images)
Jon Rahm
LIV’s other titan, he’s in a very different situation than DeChambeau. He’s still under contract — some rumors have put his scheduled service time at as late as 2029 — and LIV isn’t letting him go, no matter what. As long as LIV exists and Rahm has a contract, he’ll be teeing it up for LIV.
“As of right now, I have several years on my contract left,” Rahm said earlier this week. “I'm pretty sure they did a pretty good job when they drafted that. So I don't see many ways out.”
Prediction: He’s not going anywhere.
Phil Mickelson
No player’s reputation has suffered more from his association with LIV than Mickelson, who effectively talked his way right off the PGA Tour and right out of the good graces of most fans. Mickelson’s callous embrace of the Saudi Arabian government, fully knowing its documented human rights abuses, obliterated his standing in the public eye … even though he called for the exact changes the PGA Tour has, in fact, made. He’s been out of the public eye because of a family health emergency.
Prediction: He’ll continue to stay private, with the exception of the occasional Masters appearance, until he makes a triumphant return as a Ryder Cup assistant in 2032.
Anthony Kim
LIV’s top absolute, unqualified success story. Kim returned from a decade in the golf wilderness — like, literally, no one knew where he was — to find his form again and actually win a tournament. Say whatever you want about LIV, but it brought Anthony Kim back into our lives, which, for a certain segment of golf fans, makes it all worthwhile.
Prediction: Kim has no love for the restrictions and attitudes of the PGA Tour; he’ll ride LIV as long as he’s able.
The old-timers
Back in its earliest days, LIV signed a number of notable-in-the-2010s names — guys like Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen. Past their playing prime, they decided to take advantage of one last opportunity at a large paycheck. For them, fighting their way back onto the PGA Tour or the DP World Tour probably isn’t a realistic option.
“I don't know where this is going to go,” Graeme McDowell told Sports Illustrated earlier this week. “There’s a lot of players out here that if this goes away, they’ve got nowhere to go.”
Prediction: There will be collateral damage from the LIV fallout, and some familiar names will be part of it.
The rebels
This might come as a surprise to fans on the outside of the golf universe, but a whole lot of players really, really did not like the PGA Tour. Mickelson gave voice to their complaints, but others have followed in his footsteps. Just this week, Anirban Lahiri told The Times that “I will not name names, but I know at least a dozen players who’d rather not play golf than go back to the PGA Tour.”
Worth noting: No players sat out of this week’s event in an attempt to stop the clock on their LIV tenure, Reed-style.
Prediction: They’re riding LIV for as long as it stays afloat.
The youngsters
LIV has managed to entice young future stars, players like Tom McKibbin, Josele Ballester, Michael LoSasso and Caleb Surratt, to join up. That’s a long-term investment strategy, dependent on them winning majors down the line to boost LIV’s collective image. They went all-in on LIV, so they’ve got nowhere else to go right now.
Prediction: They’ll stick with LIV, or else they’ll start at the absolute ground floor for any other tour.
