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The most anticipated series of the season tips off tonight, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs — the two best teams in the NBA — play Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
We've polled our basketball experts for their favorite NBA picks for tonight's game, where, despite two elite defenses, we should see plenty of offense in OKC.
Spurs vs Thunder Expert Picks Tonight
Pick
Odds
Jon Metler: Fox o15.5 points
-125
Jason Logan: Holmgren o1.5 assists
-115
Joe Osborne: Over 221.5
-110
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 15.5 points
Price: -125 at bet365
All season long, I’ve been looking for schedule spots where De'Aaron Fox should see elevated minutes and a usage spike in crunch time. It’s harder than you think, because the San Antonio Spurs blow out so many teams, but the Western Conference Finals are the perfect series to target Fox’s props. Every game should be highly competitive, which is massive for Fox, who is one of the most clutch scorers in the NBA and a former Clutch Player of the Year Award winner. I know the Thunder boast an elite defense, but Fox shouldn’t be trading as low as 15.5 — his scoring output was down this season simply because San Antonio didn't need him in the 4th quarter. In this series, they will, and Fox will get to his spots in the mid-range. I'd price the over on 15.5 points closer to -185.
Jason Logan's expert pick: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 assists
Price: -115 at bet365
Chet Holmgren was in attack mode against a smaller Lakers lineup in Round 2, but he meets his match now as Victor Wembanyama can counter his size, speed, and shooting. In their head-to-head meetings this season, Holmgren's scoring numbers — and usage — plummeted. Holmgren will play away from the rim to draw Wemby out of the paint and open the interior for his teammates. The 7-footer will be used as more of a conduit for the Oklahoma City Thunder offense, finding cutters, connecting with shooters off screen actions and kickouts, or dump-downs to Isaiah Hartenstein. His assists projections all sit north of the 1.5 O/U total, ranging from 1.6 to as high as 2.3 dimes for tonight.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 221.5
Price: -110 at bet365
Expect a fast pace and sharpshooting from deep in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. OKC now shifts from facing two of the league’s slowest-paced teams, the Suns and Lakers, to a Spurs squad playing at the second-fastest pace this postseason. That pace has led to San Antonio allowing the most shot attempts per game in the playoffs, which should create plenty of opportunities for a Thunder offense averaging a postseason-best 121.3 points per game. The Spurs haven't been far off on the road, where they're averaging 119.4 PPG. Both teams are also shooting a better percentage from three in the playoffs than they did during the regular season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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