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The Seattle Mariners have struggled on the road this season, winning just seven of 18 games.
While they’re favored to get a win tonight, my Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect the home team to keep it close.
Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 11.
Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 (-135)
The Houston Astros have been very effective against right-handed pitching. They rank third in wOBA and OPS, trailing only the Yankees and Braves in those categories — the two highest scoring teams in the majors.
Their problem is not generating runs, but preventing them. That shouldn’t be an issue today with Peter Lambert on the mound.
He has allowed just six runs through 22 1/3 innings of work, and just held the powerhouse Dodgers scoreless over seven innings.
While there are signs he’s due for a little bit of regression, the Seattle Mariners (21st in runs per game, 27th in average) are unlikely to force the issue.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Peter Lambert owns a 22.2% hard-hit rate, the lowest among today’s projected starters
Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
George Kirby owns a rock-solid 1.10 WHIP, 57.6% ground-ball rate, and Lambert’s the only probable pitcher who has allowed hard contact less frequently this season.
Kirby’s ability to limit barrels and keep the ball down makes him incredibly difficult to produce offense against.
He has conceded three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season, and has given up two or less in five straight.
Lambert is sitting down a career-high 9.27 batters per nine innings by way of strikeout. That should serve him well against a Mariners squad that owns the second-highest K rate against righties.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
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ML/RL bets: 16-6, +7.53 units
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Over/Under bets: 9-12, -4.11 units
Mariners vs Astros odds
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Moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +120
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Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-135)
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info
Location
Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date
Monday, May 11, 2026
First pitch
8:10 p.m. ET
TV
FS1
Mariners starting pitcher
George Kirby
(4-2, 2.94 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher
Peter Lambert
(2-2, 2.42 ERA)
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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