I often find myself in two frames of mind when preparing for and ultimately analyzing a second-round series.
I obviously want to see what the matchups looked like during the regular season, for whatever I can glean from those games. Beyond that, I’m also fascinated by what lessons may have been learned — or what ideas could be copied and better executed — based on what happened in their first-round series.
That was my starting point for Cavs-Pistons; both teams poked at each other in specific ways during their regular-season meetings, but they also had to grind through some gnarly first-round battles against the Raptors and Magic, respectively. In particular, the Cavs and Pistons had to find some answers to unlock their offenses in light of what those teams were doing to take things away.
Sure enough, we have a 2-2 series because they’ve taken turns dictating things defensively and forcing a bunch of turnovers to boot.
The Pistons have been physical on the perimeter and, at times, have made the paint a no-fly zone due to their cast of paint protectors. The Cavaliers, especially across Games 3 and 4, have ramped up their aggression (more on that shortly) to the point where the Pistons are facing some familiar questions from the regular season.
As we enter the final sprint of this series, we’ll once again examine the subplots that will ultimately decide the winner.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
Can the Cade Cunningham-Jalen Duren pick-and-roll get back on track?
There have been broader questions surrounding the Pistons’ half-court offense — I’ve asked a few myself — but the one action you could bank on, generally speaking, was the pick-and-roll involving Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.
Only the Jamal Murray-Nikola Jokić pairing (894) ran more ball screens during the regular season than Cade-Duren (879), and only that pairing (886) and the Luka Dončić-Deandre Ayton connection (852) produced more points on those possessions than Cade-Duren (766).
Between Cunningham’s blend of three-level scoring and playmaking chops, and Duren’s violent rolls and budding short-roll chops, teams largely haven’t had much fun dealing with them this season.
I say “largely” because the Pistons haven’t been able to consistently hit the same notes during the postseason.
The Magic, with their mix of collective size, willingness to switch, and intention to send a third defender to “tag” Duren on his rolls, were able to limit the impact of that pairing for large stretches of their first-round series.
One of the louder subplots of this series has been Duren once again struggling to assert himself offensively. A lot of that has been the Cavaliers, especially over the last two games, working to take the Cade-Duren two-man game off the table.
Here’s the game-by-game breakdown, courtesy of Second Spectrum:
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Game 1: 14 picks, 1.58 PPP
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Game 2: 15 picks, 0.86 PPP
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Game 3: 14 picks, 0.58 PPP
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Game 4: 9 picks, 0.75 PPP
The Cavs have opted to ramp up their aggressiveness against Cunningham, increasingly asking their bigs (Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley) to get to the level of screens and hedge against Cunningham. When you combine that aggression at the point of screens with high tags on Duren, or Mobley simply roaming off of Ausar Thompson, you get some rough possessions on film.
Duren in particular has felt scattershot. He has oscillated between being too aggressive and missing obvious passing reads, and slowing up to process the floor to the point where Cleveland’s been able to recover — a death knell when facing an inherently rotation-based scheme.
Putting a number on it: the Cade-Duren pairing generated a paltry 0.6 points per trip when seeing a show or a blitz in the Cleveland games (Game 3 and 4), an untenable number that could flip pretty easily if the processing improves.
Luckily, the Pistons have worked to counter this. They’ve sprinkled in higher pick-and-rolls; they’ve run them with a side of the floor empty. Cunningham has mixed in rejects — driving the opposite way of the screen — to catch the Cavs’ bigs off guard.
This is the playoffs, though; I’m a champion of “process > results” thinking, but the Pistons ultimately have to execute better moving forward to truly flip this.
Can Evan Mobley be unlocked inside the arc?
It would almost be too easy to press the Donovan Mitchell or James Harden button.
They were wildly inconsistent and, at their worst, kinda rudderless as they searched for openings against a stingy Pistons defense in the first two games. But then, we got Harden slamming the door in Game 3. We then got a historically good second-half performance from Mitchell in Game 4. If they bring it, Cleveland will be in a good spot.
Beyond that, it would be nice — and would certainly make the mission a little easier — if Mobley could give the Cavs a consistent offensive punch, especially in the minutes where he and one of Harden/Mitchell are spearheading things.
To be clear, this hasn’t been a bad Mobley series in my opinion. I’ve largely enjoyed his defense; Game 2 and Game 4 in particular were high marks for me.
On the other end, Mobley’s averaging only 13.3 points on 70/27/64 shooting splits in this series. The 70% clip on 2s is fantastic on the surface, but he’s averaging a shade under six attempts per game — that frankly isn’t enough.
I’ve enjoyed the Mobley-led pick-and-rolls so far. The perimeter players have largely been game as screeners, which has either given Mobley space to attack directly, or forced favorable switches to be taken advantage of elsewhere.
The Cavs have generated 1.08 points per trip with Mobley initiating ball screens in this series — a dip from his better-than-you-think figure in the regular season (256 picks, 1.21 PPP), but still an efficient number overall. That can’t be the only way he can shake free, though.
Some of this will be on Mobley being more assertive on his touches. Nearly 40% of his attempts have come from deep in this series, a massive uptick from his regular season 3-point rate (24.3). Some of this will be on the guards to actually feed Mobley on some of these ball screens; Mitchell and Dennis Schröder in particular have quite a few reps against drop coverage where they’ve flat-out missed Mobley in the pocket in this series.
Either way, a little more juice would be helpful.
Other thoughts
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With this becoming a best-of-three, I’m genuinely curious to see what kind of hook Pistons head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has for Duren moving forward. It’s both a luxury and an indictment that, at different points of this run, Duren has been outplayed by Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed for stretches. You certainly don’t want that to be the case for a hopeful-max guy, but if it does, it’s a positive that the Pistons actually have options to turn to. Bickerstaff may have to be quicker to pivot if Duren doesn’t have it.
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I’m sad that the Tobias Harris 20-point game streak ended in Game 4, but, man, what a postseason this has been for him. He’s given the Pistons plenty of timely buckets, and has largely been up for the challenge defensively. To the latter point, I will note that Harris defended 11 drives plus 20 pick-and-rolls as the screener defender in Game 4 — both are series highs. Harden seems to be getting more comfortable with that switch; that feels like an underrated battleground to keep an eye on moving forward.
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Max Strus and Jaylon Tyson on one side; Caris LeVert and Paul Reed (!) on the other side. I’ve enjoyed the impact plays these guys have been able to put together at points during this series, and I imagine their ability to sustain those efforts will go a long way in determining who will ultimately advance to the Eastern Conference finals.
