North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick is widely considered one of the greatest football coaches in history. His tenure from 2000-23 with the New England Patriots (six Super Bowls, 17 playoff appearances) is unmatched and if there was a definition of a “first-ballot Hall of Famer” it appeared that Belichick fit that description — until he didn’t make the HOF in his first year of eligibility in February.
After being an NFL coach in some capacity since 1975, Belichick is now entering his second season in charge at North Carolina, and his first one as a college football coach didn’t go quite as planned. The Tar Heels finished the season 4-8 (2-6 in ACC play) and were largely uncompetitive, losing five games by at least 16 points.
From a betting perspective, this season also marks a new potential low for Belichick: The Tar Heels’ win total opened at 4.5 at BetMGM, which would be the lowest season win total ever for a team of which Belichick has been the head coach — pro or college.
Of course, college football has far fewer games than the NFL and North Carolina will only play 12 regular-season games this season — but it’s still a steep drop from Belichick’s first season in which the Tar Heels went well under their win total of 7.5.
The previous season win total low for a Belichick-coached team was his first season as Cleveland Browns head coach in 1991, when the Browns had an over/under of 5.5. Cleveland won six games to cash the over.
As head coach of the Patriots, New England’s lowest win total came in Belichick’s first season as well, as the Patriots had an over/under of 6.5. New England went under that total, finishing with a 5-11 record.
Belichick’s teams are 17-11-2 to win-total overs in his career as a head coach (pro and college), including a remarkable 15-7-2 record to the over with the Patriots — a team that had a double-digit win total in 15 of his seasons there.
How will the Tar Heels look in Year 2 of the Belichick regime? Will they finish with at least five wins to cash the over (or six wins and make a bowl game)?
It’ll be a fascinating story for fans and bettors alike to follow throughout the season.
