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A full 15-game Sunday slate is in store for us today, and we have 15 moneyline picks to keep you interested right through Sunday Night Baseball.
There are strong starting pitching matchups to target on today’s card, as well as some tough lineups facing underperforming starters that can be exploited.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Sunday, May 17.
MLB moneyline picks for May 17
Matchup
Pick
Marlins
vs
Rays
-163
Orioles
vs
Nationals
-122
Red Sox
vs
Braves
-150
Phillies
vs
Pirates
+113
Reds
vs
Guardians
-163
Yankees
vs
Mets
-127
Blue Jays
vs
Tigers
+100
Cubs
vs
White Sox
-138
Brewers
vs
Twins
-133
Rangers
vs
Astros
-113
Royals
vs
Cardinals
-117
Diamondbacks
vs
Rockies
+108
Giants
vs
Athletics
-133
Dodgers
vs
Angels
-138
Padres
vs
Mariners
+127
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 5-17.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for May 17
Marlins vs Rays: Tampa Bay Rays (-163)
Rays win probability: 62%
The Rays are one of the best teams in baseball.
Drew Rasmussen at home against Eury Perez is a clear pitching advantage, and Tampa Bay's lineup has been the more productive and consistent of the two all season.
Orioles vs Nationals: Baltimore Orioles (-122)
Orioles win probability: 55%
Baltimore flips to the favorite Sunday with Brandon Young starting opposite Miles Mikolas.
The Orioles' pitching edge in this matchup is real, and we're getting a manageable price against a Nationals club that hasn't been consistent at home.
Red Sox vs Braves: Atlanta Braves (-150)
Braves win probability: 60%
The Braves are rolling through May with one of the best records in baseball.
Grant Holmes starts at home against an undecided Boston arm, which is a significant pitching edge for Atlanta. The Red Sox bullpen has been sharp, but you can't ask it to carry the whole game.
Phillies vs Pirates: Philadelphia Phillies (+113)
Phillies win probability: 47%
Zack Wheeler against Paul Skenes is the best pitching duel on the entire slate.
Pittsburgh is the home favorite, but Wheeler is one of the premier arms in the National League, and the Phillies carry more offensive firepower.
Getting plus money on a Wheeler start against any opponent is worth taking seriously.
Reds vs Guardians: Cleveland Guardians (-163)
Guardians win probability: 61%
Gavin Williams leads MLB in strikeouts and carries a 2.04 ERA this season. He also owns a 2.65 ERA all-time against AL Central opponents specifically.
Brady Singer has been getting shelled at a 5.63 ERA clip. Cleveland's ace against Cincinnati's struggling starter at home makes this a lopsided matchup.
Yankees vs Mets: New York Yankees (-127)
Yankees win probability: 56%
The Yankees' lineup has been one of the hottest in baseball recently, with Ryan Weathers going against Mets starter Freddy Peralta.
The Mets have been one of the weaker offenses in the NL, and their rotation has been inconsistent. The Bronx Bombers at a clean price is a straightforward play.
Blue Jays vs Tigers: Detroit Tigers (-100)
Tigers win probability: 50%
Jack Flaherty at home against Kevin Gausman is a quality pitching matchup, but Detroit gets the nod.
Both clubs are sitting right around .500, and neither has been dominant recently, but the Tigers' bullpen has been sharper over the last two weeks.
Home field at even money is enough to make this Detroit's game.
Cubs vs White Sox: Chicago Cubs (-138)
Cubs win probability: 58%
The Cubs are one of the best teams in the NL, sending Colin Rea to face Erick Fedde. The Cubbies' lineup has more proven talent, and the White Sox have been inconsistent despite their surprising record.
The steeper price is justified by the record gap and the Cubs' ability to generate runs against mid-rotation arms.
Brewers vs Twins: Milwaukee Brewers (-133)
Brewers win probability: 57%
The Brewers' bullpen has been reliable all weekend, and their lineup will grind out enough contact to put pressure on Bailey Ober through the middle innings.
Milwaukee has the clear advantage this afternoon.
Rangers vs Astros: Texas Rangers (-113)
Rangers win probability: 53%
Texas hasn't confirmed a starter, but the offense has been more productive than Houston's recently, and the Astros are among the most disappointing teams in the AL.
Royals vs Cardinals: St. Louis Cardinals (-117)
Cardinals win probability: 54%
Andre Pallante starts at home against Stephen Kolek, giving the Cardinals a reasonable pitching edge in front of their own crowd.
They are the better team all around, and Kolek has served up three bombs in just 10 2/3 frames.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies: Colorado Rockies (+108)
Rockies win probability: 48%
The Diamondbacks lineup has been the coldest in baseball recently, and Michael Soroka against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field is a disaster waiting for both starters.
Colorado's offense has shown more life lately, and I'll back the Rockies in a slugfest.
Giants vs Athletics: Oakland Athletics (-133)
Athletics win probability: 57%
San Francisco possesses an offense near the bottom of the league and a bullpen that has been among the worst recently.
With Jeffrey Springs taking the bump, the A's have the trifecta: lineup edge, the home advantage, and the pitching matchup working in their favor.
Dodgers vs Angels: Los Angeles Dodgers (-138)
Dodgers win probability: 58%
Roki Sasaki has struggled this season with a 5.88 ERA, but the Angels are one of the coldest lineups in baseball, and the Dodgers aren't the team to right the ship against.
The defending champs win this one against a club going nowhere.
Padres vs Mariners: San Diego Padres (+127)
Padres win probability: 44%
George Kirby is a quality arm, but Seattle's lineup is compromised without Cal Raleigh.
San Diego's bullpen remains one of the best in baseball, and the Padres have been playing more consistent baseball recently.
Against a shorthanded Mariners club, the Padres are the right side.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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