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Ladies and gentlemen, we have a buy opportunity on Scottie Scheffler entering Round 4 of a major championship.
The No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking is just 5 strokes back of 54-hole leader Alex Smalley (-6) entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pa. This is despite a dismal third-round putting performance that saw him lose 2.29 strokes for the day on the highly difficult greens. We can now get him at just a 5% win probability and +1900 odds to win the PGA Championship.
As such, I'm fading Smalley after he gained 1.25 strokes on the greens on Saturday, and locking in three extra outright winner picks on the top players in contention entering Round 4 at Aronimink Golf Club.
See below for our PGA Championship Round 4 predictions and golf picks based on the live PGA Championship odds from Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps.
Best PGA Championship Round 4 predictions
Golfer
Pick
Ludvig Aberg
To win
17¢
+488
Rory McIlroy
To win
11¢
+810
Scottie Scheffler
To win
5¢
+1900
I'm sticking to the outright market entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship. The tough scoring conditions through 54 holes, and the crowded leaderboard at Aronimink Golf Club are presenting exceptional value on the world's best golfers and proven major contenders.
I'm fully fading Alex Smalley and the likes of Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, and Aaron Rai. Sunday at Aronimink has the makings of one of the most thrilling final rounds of a major championship since Rory McIlroy's 2025 Masters win. Buckle up, and sweat out these three picks on Sunday's biggest threats to win.
PGA Championship Round 4 picks to win
Best pick: Ludvig Aberg (17strong¢, +488/strong)
When live betting golf, I try to focus on strokes gained: approach as the most pivotal statistic. Ludvig Aberg ranks fifth in the PGA Championship in that metric this week, at 1.76 strokes gained per round. He leads the field with 3.34 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round, but he enters Sunday T2 due to 0.38 strokes lost per round on the green.
Having watched Aberg closely on Moving Day, the Swedish star was careless with his time on putts on several occasions. Slowing himself down while in contention on Sunday will help him make just a couple extra putts. This will be Aberg's debut major championship win.
Pick: Rory McIlroy (11strong¢, +810/strong)
Rory McIlroy executed perfectly on Moving Day at Aronimink.
The reigning Masters champion has been candid about his thoughts on Aronimink and the PGA Championship playing conditions. He then took advantage of the much easier conditions on Saturday morning, and moved himself to a share of the lead for a time, and he enters Sunday just three strokes back of Alex Smalley.
McIlroy is gaining strokes in all key metrics through 54 holes, and I'm particularly impressed in his putting performance. He can lean on his field-best driving distance with the most difficult conditions of the week expected on Sunday.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler (5strong¢, +1900/strong)
Are you kidding me with these odds?
Scottie Scheffler trails Alex Smalley by just five strokes entering Round 4 of the PGA Championship. The No. 1 golfer in the world can make up that ground on the front nine.
Watch Scottie's Round 3 highlight reel. I dare you to keep your dinner (or breakfast) down.
Scheffler was all over the pin on Saturday. He gained 1.33 strokes off the tee but lost 2.29 strokes on the green, missing often from inside of 10 feet.
We're getting 19-1 odds for Scheffler to mount an epic Sunday comeback at Aronimink. And all we need is a little luck with the flat stick. Sign me up.
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Live PGA Championship odds at Kalshi
PGA Championship favorites heading into Round 4
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1. Alex Smalley (17%, +488)
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T2. Jon Rahm (15%, +566)
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T2. Ludvig Aberg (12%, +733)
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T7. Rory McIlroy (11%, +810)
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T7. Xander Schauffele (6.5%, +1438)
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