Canadiens: Will Mr. Saturday Night Strike Again?

For the first time in 11 years, the Bell Centre will be filled to the rafters for a Saturday night playoff game when the Montreal Canadiens host the Buffalo Sabres tonight at 8:00 PM. For a second round in a row, the Habs will have an opportunity to eliminate their rival in Game 6. They couldn’t do it against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but they still treated their fans to an instant classic. An unforgettable game that was still 0-0 after regulation and ended after nine minutes of overtime hockey with a Gage Goncalves goal. Two weeks later, will the young Habs be able to put the Sabres down for good?

In the last three games, Martin St-Louis’ men have had a slow start, and they’ll be looking to get rid of that bad habit. Cole Caufield has scored in the last three games, and 21 of his 51 goals in the regular season were scored on Saturday night, earning him the Mr. Saturday Night moniker. Are the stars aligning for a storybook ending to this series?

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Historically, teams that have won Game 5 of a tied 2-2 series have qualified for the next round 80% of the time, with a 371-94 record. When they trail 3-2, the Sabres have a 1-14 record, for a measly .067 winning percentage. When the game is on the road, they have a 1-4 record, for a .200 winning percentage. Meanwhile, the Canadiens have a 36-28 record in Game 6 (.563); however, when that game is played at home, they are 19-10 for a .655 winning percentage. When they lead 3-2 in a series, the Habs have a 28-3 record for a whopping .903 winning percentage overall, and they are 8-1 (.889) when the game is played at home.

Fresh off their big 6-3 win, the Canadiens should start the game with the momentum, but the Sabres will be fighting with despair to save their season. If there’s no doubt about who will be in the net for Montreal, it’s a lot less clear for the visitors. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started the last game but was pulled after 40 minutes. Alex Lyon spent just under 14 minutes on the ice, allowing one goal before Lindy Ruff elected to pull him and use six skaters in a bid to come back into the game, or at least get some momentum back. The Canadiens could score in the empty net, but the Sabres were unable to generate grade-A opportunities, even though they enjoyed a two-minute power play.

There are also some question marks up front for the Sabres. Tage Thompson is having a tough series and has been undisciplined in the last two games. At this stage, one has to wonder if he’s playing injured; what we’ve seen in this series does not reflect what the big winger can do when he’s on top of his game. Alex Tuch hasn’t even been a shadow of himself; the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent has yet to get on the scoreboard in this series and is minus-eight against the Sainte-Flanelle. So far, Zach Benson, Josh Doan and Josh Norris have been doing the heavy lifting, but life would be much easier for the Sabres if their top players found a way to have a positive impact. Captain Rasmus Dahlin has points in the last three games, but he’s still minus-one in this series, and like Thompson, he took a costly penalty in the last game. It will be interesting to see if Lindy Ruff elects to shake things up a bit with his team on the brink of elimination.

You can catch the game on CBC, TVAS, SN, and ABC at 8:00 PM, and if you’re planning to attend in person, make sure to leave early. There are several roadworks in Montreal this weekend, so public transportation may be your best option. Make sure to be in your seats by 7:50 PM if you do not want to miss the opening ceremony. According to BPM Sports’ Max Lalonde, Larry Robinson will be the torchbearer. Francis Charron and Gord Dwyer will be officiating, while Jesse Marquis and Scott Cherrey will be the linemen. If the Canadiens eliminate Buffalo tonight, they will start their third-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night; if they fail, Game 7 will take place on Monday night in Buffalo.