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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a slump at the plate, but a matchup against Casey Mize may be just what he needs to buck the trend.
Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 16.
Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions
Blue Jays vs Tigers best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles (-130)
Despite being mired in a lengthy skid at the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA, and should see some positive regression soon once he finally gets going.
Today could be that day, especially with Casey Mize on the mound for the Detroit Tigers.
Guerrero Jr. is 3-for-3 against Mize in his career, with two of the three hits being singles.
I’m betting his singles market specifically because that’s the sweet spot for value, as 80% of his hits this year have been one-baggers.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Guerrero Jr. owns a .345 career average against the Detroit Tigers.
Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Yohendrick Pinango continues to rack up the hits game by game. He owns a .350 batting average, while recording a hit in 10 of his 14 career outings.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll add Kazuma Okamoto to go Over 0.5 hits. He’s gone Over the number in eight of his last nine games and matches up well with Mize's pitching repertoire.
Blue Jays vs Tigers SGP
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles
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Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 hits
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Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
img loading="lazy" width="100%" height="null" src="https://img.covers.com/editorial/2026/jaysmlcbp.jpg" alt="Canada’s best price for Jays"
Blue Jays vs Tigers home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+300)
I’m making this a half-unit wager.
Mize has kept the ball in the yard this season, and hasn’t given up a home run in four starts. However, if there’s one player who could take him deep today, I’m banking on it being Kazuma Okamoto.
The Jays slugger owns a .391 AVG and a .610 SLG against the four-seam fastball, which is Mize’s most used pitch against right-handed batters.
Okamoto has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 95th percentile in hard hit rate.
2026 Transparency record
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Best bets: 18-25, -3.60 units
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SGPs: 8-35, -1.20 units
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HR picks: 8-35, +5.65 units
Blue Jays vs Tigers odds
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Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Detroit -130
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Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Detroit -1.5
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Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Tigers trend
The Blue Jays have hit the team total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Tigers and game info
Location
Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Date
Saturday, May 16, 2026
First pitch
1:10 p.m. ET
TV
DSN, SN
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Mason Fluharty
(2-0, 5.40 ERA)
Tigers starting pitcher
Casey Mize
(2-2, 2.90 ERA)
Blue Jays vs Tigers latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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