Six weeks into the MLB season, we are beginning to see pitching rotations take shape and bullpens get called into action. However, some pitchers are underperforming. Here we will further examine five pitchers whose advanced metrics suggest better performance for the rest of the season.
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Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros
Through his first 7 starts of the season, Lance McCullers Jr. has posted a 7.41 ERA through 34.0 innings pitched. His xERA is only at a 4.53, a 2.88 difference, suggesting that there is a luck-driven ERA inflation rather than a genuine skill loss. His above-average BABIP against of .310 indicates that there are some balls that are falling for hits at an unsustainable rate, meaning there is some sequence misfortune and defensive positioning harming his output.
Also, his 50.0% LOB% is historically low, meaning that runners who reach base are scoring at a frequency that is unheard of, ultimately overinflating his ERA and causing his underperformance.
Miles Mikolas, Washington Nationals
In his 11th MLB season, Miles Mikolas appears to be headed towards a free fall. However, his advanced metrics tell a different story. While posting a 7.44 ERA through his first 32.2 innings pitched for the Nationals, his xERA of 4.82 and home-run adjusted xFIP of 6.14 agree that his ERA is being overinflated. Mikolas also falls under the historically low strand rate at around 56.1%, which is 16 points below the league average of 72.2%.
Baserunners are scoring off Mikolas at a historically unsustainable number. Also, his 15.1% strikeout rate and 44.2% hard hit rate aren’t bad enough for his current ERA, suggesting that it is primarily a strand-rate disaster, and his positive regression is nearly guaranteed.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
8. Garrett Crochet — SP, Boston Red Sox
While being under a 3.00 ERA and in the top 10% in strikeout rate in all of MLB for the last two seasons, Garrett Crochet has started the 2026 MLB season poorly. Currently sitting at a 6.30 ERA and a decreased 26.8% K rate, these numbers show an underperformance from his career stats as well as his advanced metrics.
His xERA of 4.85 and xFIP of 5.23 both trail his actual ERA by more than a run, and his high BABIP against of .350 and 61% strand rate show that more runs come in than his actual numbers suggest. Crochet is one of the clearest positive-regression candidates in all of baseball, and his ERA should start to converge to the mid-fours over the season.
David Peterson, New York Mets
New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson currently sits at a 6.29 ERA, with a +1.54 difference from his xERA, primarily due to bad-luck inflation. Peterson is another pitcher that falls victim to a low strand rate of 59%, and his other main issues lie in his .371 BABIP against and 48.1% hard hit rate, which are currently above league averages.
However, his 3.0% HR/FB rate, 22.0% strikeout rate, and 8.8% walk rate confirm that his stuff is functional and should not warrant as high an ERA. As his BABIP against and LOB% stabilize, he will improve towards his 4.75 expected ERA.
Emmet Sheehan
Emmet Sheehan is one of the most promising arms coming out of the LA Dodgers organization. Since recovering from his Tommy John surgery, however, he has underperformed. With chase rates, whiff rates, strikeout rates, and walk rates all in the 80th+ percentiles in all of the MLB, he currently sits at around a 5.23 ERA through 35.2 innings pitched.
Looking at his advanced metrics, he boasts a 4.32 xERA and 4.64 xFIP, meaning he should be performing better than he is. His only issue lies in his .325 BABIP against. However, as it normalizes toward league average, his high strikeout-to-walk profile suggests an ERA correction in the near future.
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