We saw the definition of March Madness last weekend, when No. 2 UConn stunned No. 1 overall seed Duke with a last-second 3-pointer to win 73-72 and complete a historic comeback after being down 15 points at halftime.
UConn is a small underdog against No. 3 Illinois in the Final Four, while No. 1 Arizona is a currently a small ‘dog against fellow No. 1 seed Michigan in what should be a fantastic matchup between arguably the two best teams in the country.
Below you'll find the favorite wagers for all the games from our college basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob and Matt Russell. We’ll update this piece throughout the week with more wagers from our experts.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Best bets for Saturday’s Final Four games
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1.5, 157.5)
Jacob: First-half scores in Michigan’s last five contests dating to the Big Ten tournament championship game: 38-38, 50-46, 48-39, 49-47 and 48-26. All five surpassed 75 points and all five flew over the first-half total, with the Wolverines putting up an average of 46.2 points.
Meanwhile, in its last eight games dating to the regular-season finale at Colorado, Arizona and its opponents have combined for at least 74 first-half points six times. During this stretch, the Wildcats have averaged 37.1 points in the opening 30 minutes of action.
Translation: Both of these No. 1 seeds love to push the pace, particularly early; both can fill the bucket; and both are extraordinarily efficient on the offensive end. I don’t expect anything different in Saturday’s Final Four nightcap.
In fact, both teams have already shown in the NCAA tournament what happens when facing an opponent that also loves to sprint up and down the court. In the Sweet 16, Arizona beat Arkansas 109-88 (with the teams combining for 97 first-half points), and Michigan thumped Alabama 90-77 (with 96 of those points scored before halftime).
It might take a beat or two for these squads to get used to shooting in a cavernous football stadium, but they’ll eventually heat up and easily top 80 points before the first-half horn sounds.
Bet: First half over 73.5 points (-125)
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (-1.5, 139.5)
Jacob: Here’s a quick recap of Illinois’ NCAA tournament performance to date: Four wins, all by double digits; three straight opponents held to fewer than 60 points on 38% shooting; a cumulative plus-65 rebounding advantage; and four starters averaging at least 12 points per contest. Just flat-out, across-the-board domination.
So, of course I’m fading the Illini in the Final Four.
The main reason: At this point, a bet against UConn in the Big Dance is essentially a bet against the sun rising tomorrow.
The Huskies’ record in their last 18 NCAA tournament games overall: 17-1 (including 15 double-digit blowouts). Their record in their last 18 tournament games from the Sweet 16 onward: 18-0 (the most recent being Sunday’s miraculous Elite Eight comeback against No. 1 overall seed Duke).
Ranking Duke's worst NCAA tournament losses since its last title
Another reason why I’m backing UConn: It already manhandled Illinois once this season, rolling 74-61 as a 3.5-point favorite in Madison Square Garden back on Nov. 28. Remember those four Illini starters averaging double digits in the NCAA tournament? They combined for 18 points on 6-for-27 shooting (including 2-for-13 from 3-point range) against the Huskies.
Granted, Nov. 28 is a long time ago. But early February is not. I bring that up because that’s when Illinois lost 85-82 to Michigan State in overtime — the first of four consecutive overtime losses (by a combined 10 points) that Illinois suffered between Feb. 7-March 13.
In fact, since edging Texas Tech 81-77 in their third game of the season Nov. 11, the Illini have played six games decided by fewer than six points. Their record in those six contests: 0-6. In other words, Illinois is untrustworthy in close games.
Well, I fully expect this one to be a 40-minute dogfight. And I fully expect UConn to do what UConn always does this time of year: come out on top — somehow, some way.
Bet: UConn money line (+115)
Illinois players celebrate after beating Iowa in an Elite Eight game in the NCAA college basketball tournament Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Houston. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Russell: Jacob’s right, it’s not any fun to bet against Dan Hurley, but until Cayden Boozer did the one thing you can’t do, there were some odd coaching-related non-actions down the stretch.
Despite having Duke in the 1-and-1, the Huskies didn’t foul Patrick Ngongba with less than a minute to go, and their penultimate possession was a prime situation for a quick two with just under 30 seconds left, but a disjointed offense looking for a 3 was bailed out by the foul that sent Silas Demary Jr. to the free-throw line. A miracle steal and logo 3 is the difference between peak UConn lore, and a second-straight season with a close-loss tournament exit.
The Huskies, completely different from its championship season outside of a young Alex Karaban, were so much better than everyone else during their back-to-back title runs that end-games weren’t an issue.
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UConn was able to slowly come back on Duke because of its commitment to an obvious mismatch — Tarris Reed Jr. on offense against Cameron Boozer, as the Huskies were able to make up ground without 3s, until late. However, this season, the Huskies had their most trouble against a team — like Illinois — that was as wide as it was long, losing twice at MSG to St. John’s. The Johnnies didn’t even have the pair of 7-footers or the No. 1 ranked offensive efficiency (KenPom) that the Illini bring to this matchup, while also not being reliant on making 3s.
As for that earlier matchup at the Garden — a virtual second home for UConn, are you familiar at all with Mihailo Petrovic and Brandon Lee? If you’re not, you might be surprised to find out that the now non-rotational Illini players were on the court for a combined 29 minutes in that game. Meanwhile, Keaton Wagler played just 14, in foul trouble in the freshman’s eighth college basketball game — his worst of the season.
Back in November, Brad Underwood didn’t have his current rotation figured out, nor could he have been sure about what he had with the under-recruited Wagler. Underwood has since bounced Petrovic and Lee, and has moved Andrej Stojakovic to the role of instant-offense off the bench, adding jack-of-all-trades defender Ben Humrichous to the starting lineup. Like most college basketball teams, the Illini are considerably different than during nonconference play.
As for the late-season 4-5 stretch, one loss was to super-power Michigan, but the other four came in overtime. Losing at Michigan State and at UCLA (with Tyler Bilodeau) is nothing to sneer at, and the other two OT losses came against Wisconsin — a high-ceiling (and low-floor) team that might have been a bad matchup for Illinois.
This re-built Illini team that might be currently playing the best of any opponent the Huskies have faced all season (non-Arizona or Michigan division).
Bet: Illinois -1.5
