Millions of Juventus-supporting matriarchs received a belated Mother’s Day gift on Monday, as Bologna edged Napoli in a battle between last season’s Scudetto winners and last season’s Coppa Italia champions. Vincenzo Italiano’s side got off to a red-hot start via Federico Bernadeschi before doubling the lead via another ex-Juve winer (Riccardo Orsolini), only for Napoli to score twice on either side of the break. However, Jonathan Rowe’s injury-time goal would see Bologna prevail 3-2 at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Whilst Inter Milan have already wrapped up the league title, and whilst Pisa and Hellas Verona have already been sent packing to Serie B, there is still plenty to play for with just two games remaining. Over at the bottom of the table, Cremonese occupy the final relegation spot, sitting one point behind Lecce and six behind Cagliari. Over at the top, meanwhile, there is a heated battle for European football taking place.
As a result of Serie A teams’ underperformance in Europe, only seven Italian teams will qualify for UEFA competitions next season. The top four teams in Serie A will book their ticket for the UEFA Champions League, whilst the next two sides and the Coppa Italia winners will qualify for the UEFA Europa League, and the next-best team will advance to the preliminary round of qualifying in the UEFA Conference League.
With just two matches remaining, Napoli currently sit second in the table, 15 points behind Inter and two points above Juventus. Juve, meanwhile, sit one point above AC Milan and Roma and three above Como, who have guaranteed their maiden European qualification. Como, for their part, sit seven points above Atalanta, 13 above Bologna, 14 above Lazio, and 15 above Udinese.
Things had the chance to be even more complicated when considering the implications of Wednesday’s match, which saw Lazio take on Inter in the Coppa Italia final. If Lazio had won on home soil, then they would have confirmed their spot in the Europa League. As it played out, Inter completed the double at the Stadio Olimpico, and now Atalanta will be all but guaranteed to reach the Conference League, with Bologna narrowly clinging onto a shred of hope.
With that being said, let’s take a look at the final two matches of the season:
Both matchdays will feature ten simultaneous fixtures, with Lecce traveling to Sassuolo in a bid to stave off relegation, whilst Inter will host Hellas Verona. Napoli will be seeking to shore up their runners-up finish with a win at Pisa, having won the reverse fixture 3-2. Cagliari will be aiming to confirm their safety with a win vs. Torino, whilst AC Milan will be vying to end their two-match losing streak against a Genoa side that has taken two points from their previous three matches.
Bologna need to win at Atalanta in order to keep their UEFA dreams alive, having lost 2-0 in the previous two encounters, whilst Como will be looking to make it three wins from four as they host Parma. The marquee match-up, however, will see Roma face off against Lazio in the Derby della Capitale. The Giallorossi have started to hit their stride in recent weeks and there’s reason to believe that they will make it four wins on the bounce against a Lazio side that was playing for their entire season on Wednesday.
As for Juventus, they have not lost a match since Feb. 21, winning six of their last nine, and we’re expecting them to trounce a Fiorentina side that has taken just three points from four matches since their UEFA Conference League elimination. Whilst they have narrowly avoided the drop, their last three away matches have seen them lose 3-0 at Crystal Palace, draw 1-1 at Lecce, and lose 4-0 at Roma, and this should be no different.
Last but not least, the final matchday will see Bologna host Inter, whilst Atalanta will pay a visit to Fiorentina; assuming that 1) Lazio beats Inter or 2) Atalanta beats Bologna, these two matches will be effectively meaningless. Parma will host Sassuolo, whilst Lecce will be looking to mastermind an escape from relegation with a win against Genoa. Roma, meanwhile, should have no issues coming away with a victory at a hapless Verona side, whilst their archnemesis Lazio will host Pisa in another dead rubber.
Milan have drawn two of their last three matches vs. Cagliari, only barely eking out a 1-0 win in Sardinia in January, and they could struggle once again, having taken one point from their previous three home matches. Como — assuming they get the job done against Parma — will be aiming to sneak into the Champions League spots and put the final nail in the coffin in Cremonese’s hopes of salvation.
Napoli have struggled against Udinese in recent years, winning just two of their last six matches and losing their last match, and they should have another tough time as they take on the Zebrette, who have won two in a row. Juventus, meanwhile, will have a stern test as they travel to crosstown rivals Torino. The Granata have won four of their last five matches at home, the exception being a 2-2 draw vs. Inter, and they have also held Juve to a draw in each of their last two matches.
Final predictions
Matchday 37: Sassuolo 3-2 Lecce, Udinese 2-0 Cremonese, Juventus 3-0 Fiorentina, Como 1-0 Parma, Milan 2-2 Genoa, Inter 2-0 Hellas Verona, Napoli 4-2 Pisa, Roma 3-1 Lazio, Cagliari 2-2 Torino, Atalanta 1-1 Bologna
Matchday 38: Fiorentina 2-3 Atalanta, Bologna 1-3 Inter, Torino 2-3 Juventus, Parma 1-2 Sassuolo, Lazio 1-1 Pisa, Milan 3-2 Cagliari, Cremonese 0-1 Como, Lecce 2-1 Genoa, Verona 1-4 Roma, Napoli 2-1 Udinese
Champions League: Inter, Napoli, Juventus, Roma
Europa League: Milan, Como
Conference League: Atalanta
