Why Tigers likely won't trade Tarik Skubal even if 2026 season unravels

Why Tigers likely won't trade Tarik Skubal even if 2026 season unravels originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The 2026 season hasn't exactly gone to plan for the Detroit Tigers. There are a lot of problems with the team at the moment, and at a very mediocre 18-22 record, it's been a bit of a letdown this season.

However, the mediocre AL Central has the Tigers just 2.5 games back of the division leader. Detroit can turn things around, and that's even with Tarik Skubal headlining a lot of key players on the injured list. But if things unravel, some trades might be made.

However, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, even if the 2026 season continues to unravel, and the Tigers are not likely to make the postseason, Skubal is not a likely trade candidate this year. But why wouldn't they trade Skubal if 2026 is a failure?

Why Tigers aren't likely to trade Tarik Skubal this year

"The Tigers would need Skubal to look like the Skubal pre-surgery, or at least back on the mound and pitching in games to get the value they need in return," Nightengale writes. "Then again, if Skubal is back pitching like himself again in July, it's hard to believe the Tigers will be out of the race at the trade deadline."

Detroit might be headed toward some regression without Skubal, but with the Tigers in a weak division, once Skubal does return, they might still have a decent chance to make up the difference in the AL Central.

That alone would make Skubal not likely to be traded. But, there's another big issue that teams will have with Skubal: how he looks coming back from injury.

If Skubal falters a bit coming off surgery, it will be hard for teams to trade for Skubal and be confident he'll be elite for them in the second half of 2026.

But, Skubal's production isn't just tied to interested teams; it's tied to the return the Tigers could get. If he struggles, teams might not offer a ton for Skubal. And the Tigers aren't going to part with the two-time Cy Young winner without getting a ton back.

So, if Skubal is struggling after his return, it will be a lot more difficult to trade him away for the value the Tigers are looking for.

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There's really only one scenario in which trading Skubal would have a semblance of a chance of happening.

If the Tigers are well out of the postseason race by the time Skubal returns, and Skubal comes back from this elbow surgery looking as good as ever, then maybe a team would be willing to part with a ton of value for the lefty ace.

Nightengale shared one MLB GM's reasoning for why a Skubal trade won't happen: "I just think they have too much money invested in this team to give up. I just can't see them moving Skubal. They're into this so deep."

As much as the theory of trading Skubal for a haul makes sense, in reality, it's hard for the right scenario to play out for the Tigers to not only be willing to trade Skubal, but also for teams to be willing to part with the compensation the Tigers are looking for.