Whenever we feel down, we will always have the Rockies to feel better again, right?
Wesley: I’m writing this Sunday morning after tough luck loss to the Rockies on Saturday, so not always! The Angels have it much worse. Still, nice to see Merril Kelly and the D’Backs offense turning it around for a game in Coors.
Spencer: Rockies. Giants. Marlins. There are plenty of teams regularly worse than the Diamondbacks. I wouldn’t mind having a few years in a row where we aren’t that for about a third of the league though….
Preston: That’s certainly true now, but it hasn’t always been true and nothing is guaranteed. Once upon a time, the Diamondbacks set or tied a record for most series wins to open a season (in integrated baseball; the 1907 Cubs have the overall record) and watched the Rockies participate in the postseason.
But it’s good to not be the worst. That’s where we were four years ago.
Also, Merrill Kelly is one of the best pitchers at Coors Field in history. Among pitchers to make 10 starts at the park, Kelly has the best WHIP, the third-best ERA, and the only pitchers with better winning percentages are Brad Penny, Greg Maddux, and Zack Greinke. (Maddux and Randy Johnson pitched there pre-humidor, so they’d certainly have better overall numbers if they got to pitch under the same circumstances as Kelly, but still.)
Makakilo: In the last two seasons, at Coors Field the D-backs vs Rockies record was 7 wins and 7 losses, while at Chase, the record was 9 wins and 4 losses. If the Diamondbacks can sweep this series at Coors [they did not], then I feel very optimistic about their next series against the Rockies at Chase.
Dano: I’m writing this after recapping the Saturday game, and, well, maybe. I mean, yeah, the Rockies have not been a consistently good team in a long time, and in recent memory they have been hilariously bad (cf. this time last year), but it’s very hard, I think, for any team to sweep the Rockies at Coors Field. That said, if playing three games against a weak team in a physical environment where offense tends to happen in copious quantities, this might be good for getting our bats back on track. That said, if we can’t get the offense back on track at Coors, I for one will feel like utter crap at the end of tomorrow.
Ben: They have been notoriously badly managed for most of my conscious memory so absolutely in that regard. But given how disappointingly the D-Backs have played them in recent years, and how much that play has cost the team for playoff contention, it’s hard to look down too much on them. There are plenty of other teams that we can look down on right now – here’s looking at you Mets – and really makes me appreciate the privilege of these good times.
James: I enjoy playing the Rockies, just because it is nice to go into a series as a clear favourite. That said, being in such a position can make losses like the one on Saturday hurt all the more.
Before the series against the Rockies, the Diamondbacks had the second worst offence in the MLB in the two weeks before, just narrowly beating out the Padres. Do you think that our hitting lineup is really that bad, compared to the rest of the teams, or will we be “just fine”, as Lovullo said?
Wesley: I think the core of Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo will be fine and heat up as the season progresses. I do think the offense has been that bad though, and I’m still advocating for a roster shakeup. Adrian Del Castillo’s offense is unacceptable for a designated hitter, and I think Tommy Troy, LuJames Groover, or Kristian Robinson are capable of a higher offensive output, if given a chance at regular playing time.
Spencer: I lean more toward agreement with Lovullo. As with most things, results matter more than hypotheticals, but the odds of Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo all having career worst years while still blistering the ball off the bat are about the same as Jose Fernandez winning Rookie of the Year. Possible sure. But incredibly unlikely.
My personal opinion is that we’ve been both unlucky and up against defenses that optimized their locations to prevent getting bullied by our elite offense. Ideally this Colorado trip will give our guys confidence and that translates into more luck. Too much Copium? Meh, it’s May. If you don’t have Copium as a Diamondbacks fan in May, who even are you?
Preston: Some Diamondbacks have certainly been unlucky at the plate. However, there comes a time when–if everyone is unlucky–one must begin to question if it is a systemic issue. But I will say that it only feels like everyone is being unlucky. In fact, it’s pretty much just Marte who is unlucky. Perdomo is actually being lucky, according to his expected stats with quality of contact. Still, his walks give him a solid floor. Vargas is being quite lucky according to all of his expected stats. Arenado is being lucky.
The Diamondbacks do have an Adrian Del Castillo sized problem, though. Not only are his numbers bad, but his expected numbers are exactly in line with the real numbers. He’s in the fourth percentile by xwOBA. That’s acceptable for a stellar defensive catcher. That’s nowhere near acceptable territory for a DH, and he’s consistently been hitting fourth or fifth in the order. But there aren’t many alternatives. Where is Carlos Santana? According to the Aces, he was returned from his rehab assignment on May 12th. Pavin Smith is a ways away. How long before they have to reach down for Danny Serretti or Manuel Pena or Ben McLaughlin because ADC has just been that bad?
Wesley: Just to chime in briefly, Santana reinjured his adductor muscle last Sunday. Serretti has been tearing up both the Texas and Pacific Coast league, so him getting a shot isn’t too crazy. Aside from the names Preston and I have already mentioned, why not Tyler Locklear? He’s healthy, hitting decently well after coming off the IL, and unlike every other minor leaguer mentioned, he’s already on the 40 man roster.
Makakilo: I’m currently writing an article with insights about the recent Diamondbacks offense. I am very excited about what I found! It will be posted Tuesday.
Dano: I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between, as it usually does when considering diametrically opposed hot takes. To some extent, I think it’s probably just one of those weird relatively-small-sample-size blips on the radar. On the other hand, though, the fact that everyone in the lineup seems to be making a habit right now of flailing away at the first three pitches and allowing opposing starters to go deep into games suggests an underlying process (or coaching) problem to me. Though we lost today, a number of our key players had many more long and patient at bats than I recall seeing in awhile, so maybe that’s a good sign that the blip is just that. Dunno. We shall see.
Ben: I think it’s probably a little of column A and a little of column B. There are several players who have not hit well but have a long enough track record of success that I believe they’ll turn it around – like Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo. But there are too many offensive holes that are getting regular at-bats right now. That core is not enough to overcome the combined struggles of Gurriel, Barrosa, and Del Castillo. The fact that there are just three players in the lineup with an OPS+ above 100 is pretty bleak.
James: When the lineup regularly features ADC, Tawa, Barrosa, and McCann, you are already behind the eight ball. Throw in Marte, Perdomo, and Carroll all experiencing varying problems at the plate from slightly off to abysmal, and that makes things even tougher. Yet, somehow, they are still managing to tread water in the standings. The longer they can do that, the better their chances of making a strong push when the underperformers get their ships righted. I agree with some of the others though that this is the summer to start getting good looks at the likes of Troy, Groover, Robinson, and Locklear (among others). By the time the next season reaches opening day, the team should have a very good idea of what they have in each of those players.
Those 9 successful saves make Paul Sewald a top 10 closer in the MLB. It could be worse, just look at Kenley Jansen, Emilio Pagan, Devin Williams… Is fan disappointment justified and are we better off with a different closer?
Wesley: It could be worse, but the disappointment is justified, and the Dbacks would be best off if they began looking at other options until Puk and Martinez come off the IL. Counting on Sewald for the entire season seems a bit misguided.
Spencer: I’m going to be that guy and say all opinions are true regarding Sewald. The team can hardly complain about results going in their favor. And yet the underlying metrics don’t bode well. And there are certainly far better closers I’d want closing games for Arizona. The question is are they available to Arizona at this moment? I don’t honestly know. Morillo is intriguing, but not exactly a sure thing better option currently. Then there’s the hypothetical resurgence brought upon by Puk and JMart, but they aren’t healthy yet. And it’s not like we can just go out and somehow grab a Mason Miller or Aroldis Chapman on May 20 (unless you’re ok with mortgaging the future for a hope and a dream they keep it up in Phoenix).
Preston: Closers are always disappointing, because we magnify their failures and their successes are just what is supposed to happen. But Sewald is an interesting case. His stuff just isn’t that good. Spencer is right about his underlying metrics, but they aren’t that much worse than they were in 2023. Sewald sometimes succeeds despite subpar stuff (and it definitely is; his pitches are well below average for both velocity and movement, and his extension is likewise below average). He can make it work if he’s locating everything well. When he doesn’t, he gets hit hard.
Velocity and/or movement isn’t everything, or Blake Cederlind and Ricardo Yan would be aces in the major leagues instead of struggling at the complex. Sewald will continue being what he is, and that includes being a pitcher who gives up a big hit at the worst times.
Makakilo: In the Feed section, Jim McLennan asked Who should be closing games for Arizona right now?
Although Morillo seems the better pitcher (my short comparison follows), the Feed had an interesting discussion of when in the game the best pitcher should make an appearance. One comment follows:
“I believe Morillo is our best reliever and I believe Sewald is still the best option to close games. Having Morillo come in as the ‘fireman’ is a very valuable position and Sewald doesn’t look like he’s lost his closing mojo just yet. Closing is about attitude as much as it is stuff, in my opinion, and Sewald has done a fine enough job flushing bad appearances and showing up ready to go the next day. I wouldn’t rock the boat unless Sewald looks broken a couple in a row.” –1 AZfan1
Morillo vs Sewald:
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1HR/73BF vs 3HR/61BF
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12 Shutdowns vs 7 Shutdowns
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1.94 xFIP vs 4.18 xFIP
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75% GTJD vs 83% GTJD both great but Morillo overcame 7 games out of 20 with inherited runners
Dano: Like Spencer, but more succinctly, I will answer the question with “Yes.” Sewald currently enjoys a 90% save success rate, which as I noted elsewhere this week is a rate that lots of other teams would kill for. That said, someone else should definitely be our closer, should the right someone else be there and available to pitch in save situations. But until AJ Puk and/or JMart return from their various types of arm-reattachment surgery and demonstrate that they have their old mojo back, I think Paul’s the best we’ve got, and his success rate so far demonstrates that. I mean, that’s exactly what we signed Sewald to do: to be our bridge closer while the folks we’d like and expect to occupy that role have recovered sufficiently from their injuries to take up the closer mantle again.
Ben: We’d definitely be better off with a different closer once one is available. Sewald has been better this year than in years past with a WHIP under one and a strikeout rate in the top 10% of the league. But he’s still allowing a ton of hard contact (44%) and has turned into a flyball pitcher which isn’t a great combination for a closer or high-leverage reliever. At the same time, it’s hard to argue with the results that are already baked into the season and there aren’t a ton of other options available until Puk or Martinez work their way back from their respective injuries.
James: If he gets results, let the man pitch. But, Paul Sewald’s stuff is so incredibly mediocre that every single time he enters a game, the leash should be a short one. Sewald is on the raggedy edge of his career being done. If he loses any further velocity, or if he stops getting away with meatballs because the movement edges back even more, he’s going to be lit up like the Rockerfeller Christmas tree. Once the likes of Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk return, I would be far more comfortable with Sewald in the setup role. Until then, let Sewald keep trying his luck, but keep Morillo around to replace Sewald in the role at the first sign of continued slipping, signs that are inevitable given Father Time’s record.
The competitive balance threshold for 2026 is set at $244 million and according to Steve Gilbert, the team is just “around $5-$10 million away from that threshold”. How is it possible that we field such a mediocre team with those amounts of money invested?
Wesley: That’s just what happened when your expensive free agent pitching acquisitions end up on the injured list
Spencer: Easily. We have many millions of dollars resting on the IL. Plus we paid LA-inflated market rates for sub-optimal production in Gallen and Kelly (Kelly might just be changing that around though). And unfortunately for Arizona and Kendrick’s pocketbook, I believe the competitive balance threshold views all contracts on AAV instead of actual dollars spent so the likes of Pfaadt, Carroll and Perdomo “cost” the team more in that calculation than they do in reality. I’ll be first in line to question Hazen’s comment that removing Thomas’ arbitration salary gives him some leeway at the deadline though…. If that’s actually true, this business is already over the cliff’s edge, adrenaline-fueled slow motion staring back at solid ground unaware that free fall is imminent.
Preston: Spencer hits the nail on the head, although I’ll say that a player making $10 million on the year is only going to count for about $3 million at the deadline. But the bigger issue is systemic, and ties into the following question. Pitching is expensive. Zac Gallen is no longer a good pitcher, but that’s the kind of pitcher that $18 million gets you on the market. $30 million a year gets you basically the top position player at a given position; $30 million a year in pitching gets you a borderline ace, not even a top-ten guy. And the Diamondbacks have essentially five free agent starting pitchers on that roster (counting Gallen in addition to Kelly, E-Rod, Burnes, and Soroka.)
Makakilo: Cash payroll and luxury tax payroll (which is calculated based on more than one season) can be different. [side note $47 Million on injured player contracts]. Spotrac provided the following for the Diamondbacks:
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$186.7 Million, projected cash payroll
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$229.9 Million, projected luxury tax payroll
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$244.0 Million, luxury tax threshold
Dano: Again, I will echo Spencer: Easily, for pretty much the reasons he stated. More broadly, we have a lot of money tied up in a lot of contracts that were signed at different points for different situational reasons at the point those contracts were signed. The fact that so much of that money is tied up in players languishing on the IL strikes me as back luck and bad timing as much as anything. I feel like this question implies some direct causal correlation between the decisions the franchise made to offer these contracts and where we find ourselves at this particular moment as we consider the arbitrary figure of the CBT threshold, when there is no direct causal relationship.
Ben: There are a lot of reasons, plenty of which have been brought up already, but it also doesn’t help when the team has ~$6.5 million tied up in either dead contracts like Joe Ross who was released and five million to Madison Bumgarner who hasn’t played in three years. There are quibbles to be had on players like Gurriel or Pfaadt, neither of whose contracts have aged well to this point, but that’s the risk in extending players.
James: The others have pretty much already answered this one fairly thoroughly. I think this situation also reinforces the need for the team to start getting good looks at the likes of their top prospects. The fewer holes that need to be filled via free agency, the better they can allocate funds to improving the roster. Needing to buy three starters and some bullpen help, in addition to having holes on the field put Arizona in a terrible position this last winter. Hopefully, the arrival of Arnado for two years and the impending promotions will help to sort some of the payroll chaos moving forward. Of course, the team is still going to be sending high for a bit longer as they are still going to need to replace some pitching in the upcoming offseason. Arizona really needs Burns to return as his old self and for one of their starter prospects to make the grade by the end of the season.
Mike Hazen took the helm in 2017. 9 years later…why haven’t the Diamondbacks been able to deliver some strong home grown starting pitching?
Wesley: Our minor league pitching development staff sucks and the high offense environments of three out of four minor league affiliates isn’t exactly conducive to developing effective pitching. The Dbacks also seem to really struggle at identifying amateur pitching talent to sign in the first place. When they do find above average talent, it seems like they have gotten unlucky with health, which has just compounded matters even further. As noted further down, Jeremy Bleich is trying to change that, but I am not exactly confident that he will be able to succeed.
Spencer: We’ve got Nelson and Pfaadt! lol. If I had the real answer, I’d be a marginally more wealthy individual and live back in Phoenix rather than the limp noodle of a state Ohio. While I truly believe development change is the hardest and slowest aspect of a baseball franchise to change, I’d be remiss if I didn’t admit disappointment in our pitching pipeline a decade removed from Hazen’s start. Jameson was derailed by injuries, which happen but can’t be completely forgiven, especially given the way he was used. A lot of blame should be given to avoiding arms at the top of the draft, but then you have the Chad Patrick’s of the world (2021 4th round pick). Of course that brings up the idea of trading away potential for nothing. And that brings us back to the question at hand: do you believe Patrick develops into an MLB caliber starting pitcher if Arizona heads his development rather than Oakland and Milwaukee? I don’t have a solid opinion there…
My biggest question as a fan is why we’ve avoided first, second and sandwich round draft selections on pitching. In 2019, we did take some and the closest thing to successes Hazen has had stem from those picks. Stuff matters. Stuff goes early (or slightly later with big bonus money).
Preston: Pitching development is one of the hardest things to do. Brennan Malone isn’t the only pitcher taking in the top rounds to completely bust. Of first round picks in 2019, Drey Jameson is the fourth-best pitcher by bWAR, and one of the three ahead of him is Alek Manoah, who had one good season, one great season, and has been below replacement level ever since. Bryce Jarvis is also the fourth-best pitcher from the first round in 2020. The Diamondbacks are not alone in struggling with it. And there are some remarkable successes as well. Yilber Diaz and Christian Montes De Oca were bargain international signings with no expectations.
Hazen knows the issue, though, which is why he hired Jeremy Bleich from the Pirates. It’s going to take time before we see real results, but I was encouraged by the overhaul of Brian Curley’s mechanics before the season (although Curley has started to fall into some bad habits as time has passed) and the resurgence of Diaz could have something to do with Bleich as well. Unfortunately, it’ll take a few years before it really shows fruit; Carmen Mlodzinski and Jared Jones were both taken in 2020 and the Diamondbacks will be drafting too late to have a shot at a top arm like Paul Skenes. It’s heartening to see the organization try to fix this, at least.
Makakilo: Jeremy Bleich is improving the process of developing pitchers. See this AZ Snake Pit article.
Dano: Because Mike Hazen’s skill set is not developing minor league pitching, and he can’t and doesn’t control much of anything about how our minor league teams and coaching staffs go about their business, which is probably for the best because he likely wouldn’t be very skilled at any of that. That of course is why that stuff isn’t his job, except in the broadest big picture sense.. I mean, if someone really wants to blame Hazen for this, I suppose one can–he’s certainly involved in the MLB draft every year, which is supposed to provide the raw materials for our minor league player development machine, and GIGO has been a valid acronym for years for obvious reasons. But the connection between our dismal performance developing pitchers down on the farm and Mike Hazen’s tenure as General Manager of the entire franchise seems to me to be tenuous at best.
James: The number of impact pitchers falling below the top-10 picks in the draft is decreasing at an alarming rate. Yes, Arizona has had a few high draft picks in Hazne’s tenure. While there were some intriguing arms still available when Arizona selected Jordan Lawlar, only Andrew Painter and Gavin Williams have come good yet and Williams was selected as part of the third tier of first round talent in the draft. Even the two pitchers that were selected ahead of Lawlar have yet to come good. Outside of those two seasons, the impact pitching hasn’t really been available. Once you combine a lack of quality arms available to draft with an already suspect developmental pipeline for arms, there are going to be issues. Hopefully, some of the arms that are on the verge of debuting will help to turn that narrative around some more, building off the relative successes of Pfraadt and Nelson.
Except for a possible monster like Loch Ness, I always found peace in the fact that UFO sightings and movies with aliens were taking place in the USA. However, “interesting material”, according to president Trump, was released by the Pentagon and it shows sightings take place all over the world. Maybe the aliens are still checking where to land. Where will they eventually land, why there and will they come in peace?
Wesley: I’d just avoid Earth entirely at this point. In all seriousness, it’d be a disservice to distill my very complex and nuanced views on the subject down to a paragraph, so I won’t!
Makakilo: Where they land likely depends on three things:
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What makes their time meaningful? Possibilities include learning about the history of earth, influencing global leaders, guiding technology development, and creating progeny.
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Where are they safe? Humans are possibly the most violent creatures to ever exist, and human diseases are commonplace.
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Where are they comfortable? Their alien bodies likely have a comfortable climate and environment.
Dano: Maybe it’s just that I’m taking a dimmish view of the world and what goes on in it these days, for various reasons, but I’d guess that if they have any sense they’ll just keep going.
James: They land on the Moon and grab whatever their equivalent of popcorn is to watch this world find more and more ways to screw up even easy things.
